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0 sats \ 2 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 5 Apr \ on: Worrying About a Dethroned Dollar (The Economist) econ
The bottom line is not explained - it is pure irrational US exceptionalism - refusing to see that the tariffs cost and weaken the US the most, while strengthening trade and common cause between all other nations, undermining the legacy advantage the US has held in international institutions and protocols.
There will now be far greater willingness, even urgency, between other trading nations to utilise alternative trade payment protocols to the USD SWIFT hegemony upon which the USD global reserve currency 'petrodollar' status relies.
China has enabled trade payments for Iran and Russia and now has mBridge digital payments protocol ready to expand with Saudi Arabia recently joining both mBridge and BRICS.
Europe is going to be much less willing to be complicit with US/SWIFT sanctions on Iran and much more willing to accept trade with China denominated in Yuan or Euros.
The viability of US debt servicing is already questionable- it is already close to a $1 Trillion annual drain on US the government finances - if Trump insists on rewarding himself and his wealthy corporate sponsors with more tax cuts, any gains in US government solvency from the tariffs will be squandered and US Treasuries will be relegated to the status of junk bonds.
Trump is trashing the USD petrodollar reserve currency trade payments hegemony and the credibility of US Treasuries.
He is opening the door for China to build upon its already operational digital trade payments gateways and Europe, Japan and others to join it.
US Treasuries will be relegated to the status of junk bonds.
If this ever happens the world will fall apart, economically at least.
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World trade is already centred upon China.
China pays the best price for most commodities and sells manufactured goods at the best price.
Thus most, if not all, nations need to trade with China or suffer economic disadvantage.
The value of US Treasury bonds is presumed upon the liquidity of USD financial markets, the universal acceptance of USD and the credibility of the US government honouring the debt obligation those bonds are.
It is no secret that the US government has been operating a chronic deficit for decades and consuming more than it produces - this enabled by the global reserve currency status of the USD enabled by the hegemony of the SWIFT trade payments network. The viability of this continuing is highly questionable and increasingly in doubt- this is part of the reasoning given by Trump for his imposition of global tariffs.
In current world circumstance if the US and its Treasury bonds were to default there would be massive dislocation and losses on financial markets, but trade in the goods people need and want would continue and be denominated in different currencies as is already increasingly the case.
The USD based financial markets could well fall apart leaving huge disruption and wealth redistribution- but actual trade in commodities and manufactured goods would not cease.
It would shift substantially from current patterns and protocols to new patterns and protocols.
The US era of empire would be over.
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