See my post to Darth above... 2000 x 6 x 24 x 7 x 52... or like 100 million Lightning channel openings a year. Even at 50% of that it's ~ 50 million channels opened in a year.

My take away is that there's a lot of unused capacity for Lightning and transactions on Bitcoin, like a tremendous amount of capacity available to open channels to 'transact' for regular-sized transactions or micro-transactions.

And now that BRCs and Jpegs have fizzled out we see the real demand for monetary transactions: around 1 sat/vB.

The good news is there is so much more room for monetary scaling... from what I can see. The not as goodnews... is that this shows how little real demand there is worldwide for Bitcoin Layer 1.

Moving funds and paying people basically is 1-2 sats/vB that's it currently.

And once Bitcoin users have a few 'lightning channels' opened... there's really no reason to 'go onchain' except very rarely.

So without new users and more 'education' as to why to transact in Bitcoin, there's almost no demand for L1 after the NFTs have fizzled out.