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When was the last time you heard the head of a central bank assert that deflation is beneficial to the economy, even if only as a “correction” of previous inflation? Well, if you were paying attention, you would have heard it just last week when Nandalal Weerasinghe, Governor of the Sri Lankan central bank, announced changes in his nation’s monetary policy. While prices in Sri Lanka have declined by 2.1 over the past twelve months to a level not seen since September 2022, the economy has been growing at a rapid rate of 4.5 per cent per year. In addressing this seeming paradox, Governor Weerasinghe explained to reporters:
It comes after very high inflation. We had food inflation of 100 percent. We see the deflation as a correction. If there is some negative effect from deflation, it has to be shown through economic growth [which given its healthy rate of increase has not been negatively affected]. So we see it as a correction. It is good for the cost of living. So it is a benefit for the people.
Unfortunately, Governor Weerasinghe’s statement was not a full-throated endorsement of deflation as a long-run monetary policy. In fact, it was made immediately after the central bank had lowered its policy rate from a corridor of 8.25 to 9.25 percent to a single rate of 8.0 percent. This loosening of monetary policy, according to the Governor, was aimed at the long-term strategy of slowly raising the annual inflation rate to 5 percent. What Mises termed the “ideology of inflationism” has become so deeply entrenched among the public, politicians, policymakers, and most economists that it cannot be dislodged even by episodes like Sri Lanka’s that starkly illustrate the logic that falling prices are the natural complement of economic growth.
Well, he said the quiet part aloud!! We had deflation during the 19th century that worked out very well for this country. Then the Federal Reserve Bank struck and we have had crippling inflation ever since 1913. We have also had a nice brace of wars to warm the cockles of our hearts, all thanks to the Fed. So, to see deflation once more would be more than welcome. Which would you rather have inflation or deflation?
I’m sure Stackers are pretty united on Team Deflation.
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Yes, they like good money. I doubt that BTC will be either because there is only a limited supply that cannot grow beyond its limit.
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But deflation destroys debt based money which can lead to a collapse? No? We must remember debt is treated as an asset on someone’s books. Why the USA government can never default
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Yes, it can default and has defaulted at least three times to my knowledge; 1879 or 8, 1932 and 1971. I think we are on course for another default. We are in the same position as Spain and England were in when they were world powers.
BTW, whose books is debt treated as an asset? Anybody you know? The one place where it could affect me is in, say, a pension fund. I own no debt assets beside FRNs.
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Yeah but banks and nations treat this debt we owe like mortgage backed securities are assets for folks
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You’ll also notice that they are constantly in problems and needing bail-outs. Or the other outcome is the big ones swallow up the little ones that the Federal Reserve Bank says are insolvent. I think a lot of the debt is worse than garbage and shouldn’t even be rated by the rating agencies.
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