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0 sats \ 3 replies \ @Cje95 9 Apr \ parent \ on: 10-year Treasury yield continues move higher after weak Treasury auction econ
You know China is a huge debt bomb as well right? Its cities, providence, and localities shadow debt is so bad China doesn't know what to do with it.
You can reverse engineer all you want but it doesn't work if you don't innovate and well China isn't. There “new” nuclear reactors the US did 70 years ago. There projects from silk and road are going belly up across the world since COVID or countries have just straight up canceled them.
Loaning the most money in the world doesn't equal success. Reverse engineering doesn't equal success. In Western cultures CBDCs have a huge issue with privacy.
Also you know during the Cold War their was trade outside the US right? India and the USSR are prime examples but trying to do that in 2025 has shown not to work. China manipulates the hell out of their currency and no one wants a currency whose value could crash.
BRICS is driving straight into a wall because none of the countries want to agree to a currency that isn't there's being the chosen one. Then add in who controls that and that is why historically it all boils down to one country and one currency. Baskets of currencies just dont work.
The data and history also backs up all of my points. India and China literally have their soldiers beat each other to death ever couple of years and have been building up militarily along their border lol
It is true China allowed their property sector to become heavily over leveraged.
Greedy western funds were the biggest losers.
https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/blackrock-vanguard-shareholdings-in-evergrande-plummet-by-more-than-250m-20210928
https://www.newsweek.com/blackrock-could-see-short-end-stick-potential-divvy-evergrande-assets-1632103
Chinas problem is a fast growing middle class who want investment options and this is not a bad problem to have. Certainly Chinas financial system is not as advanced as the US/west but its productive economy has outstripped the wests decaying financialised manufacturing and China and Chinese are now growing richer and increasingly developing financial and investment regimes and less and less reliant upon western options like USTs.
India and Russia have always has a close economic and military relationship.
Now Russia is supplying China with nuclear sub technology.
Yes there is natural and ancient tension between India and China.
Just as you probably know there have been wars between the US and Mexico and that the US has meddled in most of Latin America.
Trump has realised US global hegemony is no longer viable and is seeking retreat to the regional hegemony of the Americas it enjoyed from the late 19th century.
Europe is up for grabs and S.E. Asia is already increasingly under Chinese tribute.
Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos are all firmly back under the ancient regime of Chinese tribute.
Japan and S.Korea might find they are in the medium term - in terms of trade they already are highly integrated and dependent upon China- with US tariffs that process of Sino regional hegemony accelerates.
Winning the trade war precedes all else and all else takes time but is almost inevitable once you have built an economy that is more competitive than all others.
Monetary hegemony inevitably develops for the dominant trading nation/s.
USA is no longer dominant after 50 years of trade surpluses.
At least Trump understands this even if most Americans are still in denial.
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Dude you really think China and Japan are going to come together?
Also its Russia gave nuclear sub tech to North Korea China already has had it and even launched a nuclear sub… now it sunk to the bottom immediately and was a complete loss but still.
Finally since this is going in circles China has a population cliff and has over 20% unemployment of young adults. That's not economic boom that's war type of situation. China is continuing to ramp up its own isolationism with its population because pesky freedom of speech is an issue to their power. They are one death of their leader from calamity as just like with Russia there is no one in the wings. He killed all those people off over the years
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Japan is already heavily enmeshed with China in economic terms.
Culturally there is deep antipathy but 'its the economy stupid'.
In the end trade is wealth and wealth is power.
And China has hands won the trade war.
USA is a fading power reliant, dangerously reliant, upon credit lines that come from outside of the US.
The US Inc has been reliant upon financialisation based on USD hegemony which has weakened its productive capacity to such a chronic extent that to restore the US as a productive economy exporting manufactured goods is simply not credible.
China is raising its retirement age for blue collar women from 50-55, white collar women from 55-60 and men from 57-62?
China leads the world in robotics and automation.
China can build a robot equivalent to a $50,000 US made one, for $3000.
Agree Chinas culture is more autocratic and collectivist than US, but nations emerging into empire are usually much less liberal than they become as they become powerful and wealthy.
The 'rights' westerners might take for granted are only possible because the west has raped, pillages, enslaved and subjugated every other culture on the planet.
Except China was too big and culturally deep and alien to fully subjugate, and now China is economically stronger than the US and building up its empire as the US sinks deeper into debt and decline.
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