This is an all out war now, but we can enjoy, right?
I must say I didn't expect China increasing 50 points.
I'm already waiting for Trump's reaction!
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41 sats \ 23 replies \ @Undisciplined 9 Apr
China's economy is much more dependent on exporting to America than the American economy is on importing from China. As long as Trump's serious about deregulation, some combination of new trading partners and domestic production can replace Chinese imports at relatively little cost.
On the other side of that, there is no other consumer base to replace the loss of American demand for Chinese producers.
Their economy is much shakier, on top of that. If they don't capitulate, there will be immense civil unrest in China, from a population that's really been put through a lot over the past few years.
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51 sats \ 12 replies \ @TNStacker 9 Apr
I'm not so sure about this. It kind of sounds like a western perspective. And I think China's done a really good job of developing markets and access to markets around the world ex-USA. We, on the other hand have an underclass completely dependent on Walmarts and Targets full of cheap Chinese goods. The supply shift for those goods will be painful.
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21 sats \ 11 replies \ @Undisciplined 9 Apr
There's no replacement for US consumer demand. No one can rival our extravagant materialism. Those shelves full of Chinese goods are my point. It's largely stuff people don't particularly need, or can find replacements for, but China needs those products to move.
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21 sats \ 4 replies \ @TNStacker 9 Apr
Don't forget, China can do pretty much whatever it wants with it's people.
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41 sats \ 3 replies \ @Undisciplined 9 Apr
Until it can't. The Chinese people were willing to accept tyranny when it was accompanied by 10% annual prosperity increases. That was something like a social contract over there. I don't think they'll be as tolerant when the economic gains dry up.
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50 sats \ 0 replies \ @Coinsreporter OP 9 Apr
Sitting right next door to china, I totally approve that chinese people don't have good sentiments for tyranny now.
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27 sats \ 1 reply \ @TNStacker 10 Apr
True, but the comparison is with Americans ..
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21 sats \ 5 replies \ @TNStacker 9 Apr
Trump is killing US consumer demand and business propensity to invest in capital equipment, btw.
But you're correct about the consumer. However, isn't this where the shift is coming? More financially sovereign individuals, value moving to Bitcoin, time preferences lengthening...
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21 sats \ 4 replies \ @Undisciplined 9 Apr
I hope there's a consumer shift coming, but we both know how deeply ingrained consumerism is amongst our fellow Americans.
I need to see more to evaluate what's going on with capital equipment and other major fixed cost investments. We're going through a major economic correction and it makes sense for investors/owners to keep their powder dry until the dust settles, regardless of their long-term expectations. Then, we'll see if they really are less willing to invest in American production.
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36 sats \ 2 replies \ @TNStacker 9 Apr
Consumerism goes away with a prolonged economic depression. In one generation.
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21 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 9 Apr
Have you ever tried manufacturing anything in the US?
Most products will cost 3 to 10X what you can out source production to China for.
China has won the trade war...you just can't accept it and its consequences.
It is delusional to think you can build a US manufacturing base that can compete with what China has built up over the last 35 years.
It is simply not viable.
Anyone with experience in manufacturing will confirm this.
And most of the imports from China are essential goods, not plastic toys.
Look at the massive dependence upon made in China goods across nearly all productive lines and supply chains. It is systemic.
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35 sats \ 8 replies \ @Coinsreporter OP 9 Apr
I agree 100%.
US can easily get everything at a little more cost from India. Haha.
I don't understand why American media is still cursing Trump. Almost every news outlet is showing the biggest economic mistake by a president.
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49 sats \ 2 replies \ @TNStacker 9 Apr
And is not producing at the cost and quality of China. Not even!
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20 sats \ 1 reply \ @Undisciplined 9 Apr
Even if they were, the extra distance will mean greater cost.
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33 sats \ 0 replies \ @Coinsreporter OP 10 Apr
Yes, that's avery big cost to consider. The shortest distance has a difference around 2000 N. miles.
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83 sats \ 4 replies \ @Undisciplined 9 Apr
American media is often (rightly) referred to as the corporate press. They're beholden to their corporate overlords and are going to flip out when the stock market crashes. Much less coverage goes to how the labor market or inflation are trending, even those effect way more people.
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39 sats \ 2 replies \ @freetx 9 Apr
Yep. Its interesting watching the Mainstreet vs Wallstreet dynamic playout. Mainstreet (ie. middle-class) is still largely supporting the tariffs as they realize their only hope is to get meaningful jobs again.
Mainstreet knows that even if the stock market goes up 4x over the next 20 years, that basically doesn't represent any gain to them. Their just going to get inflation with lower job opportunities.
The corporate press is screaming about "tariffs will be paid by consumer" and they are largely correct. However, they don't mention the other side. We are basically in a situation of do you rather: (a) Inflation with lower job opportunities or (b) Inflation with higher job opportunities.
Mainstreet would prefer to pay $20/doz eggs and earn $30/hr....over the status quo which is $20/doz eggs and earn $12/hr + crushing student loan debt + high home prices.
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31 sats \ 1 reply \ @Undisciplined 9 Apr
I'm not even granting them that, although it's obviously partly true. There are good reasons to expect the tax incidence to fall heavily on the exporters. Prices will certainly rise to some extent, but I expect it will be much less than full pass through.
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51 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 9 Apr
the best way to help Main Street is to eliminate taxes on business (i.e. corporate tax)
doing so will encourage firms to stay home and foreigners to set up shop in Main Street USA
eliminating or reducing corp taxes will encourage in-sourcing and discourage outsourcing
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35 sats \ 0 replies \ @Coinsreporter OP 9 Apr
Indian media is Modi-fied a d American media Trump-Tied. Media is selling the names not the reality.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 9 Apr
An American-Made iPhone: Just Expensive or Completely Impossible?
https://archive.ph/V4AET
USA cannot manufacture most things at a globally competitive rate- from smartphones the warships US supply chains are bloated, inefficient or non existent.
Over 50 years of petrodollar 'endless' fiat money printing and debt accumulation living beyond your means have their consequences.
Trumps tariffs are a desperate gamble to cut imports, increase government revenue and regain solvency as debt rollover looms.
USTs are no longer seen as a safe haven.
The two biggest holders of USTs have just been hit with unlawful and unjustified 104% and 24% trade tariffs.
Great way to anger and alienate those you are dependent upon to sustain your massive debt mountain Donald.
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20 sats \ 2 replies \ @justin_shocknet 9 Apr
De-listing Chinese stocks would be a spicy response, that'd cut off a lot of dollars. CNY is toast.
Bessent also hinted at a bloc after getting finalizing things with allies, Bretton Woods 3.0 imminent. They're calling it a "Golden" Age for a reason, which will grease the skids for actual settlement.
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100 sats \ 1 reply \ @Solomonsatoshi 9 Apr
China is the biggest holder of USTs.
If they put them up for sale en masse USD and USA would be toast.
Bessent is a delusional moron.
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20 sats \ 0 replies \ @justin_shocknet 9 Apr
No they aren't, they hold less than a trillion... we print that every quarter.
China's shitcoin has nowhere to go but down, and with it their ability to import food and energy.
Bretton Woods 3 inevitable.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @flat24 9 Apr
This will be a pressure game until either, from one step to the side.
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