It looks like the Leafs will win the Atlantic Division this year, which unfortunately for them is probably not a good thing for their playoff prospects. Tampa could still finish ahead of them but the Leafs have a 2 point lead, a game in hand, and all the tiebreakers against them.

Although the 2025 Leafs team seems better constructed for a deep playoff run than in years passed (they have improved defense, checking and goaltending) their path in the Eastern conference, as they try to win their first cup in 58 years, isn't very promising.

It is likely they will play Ottawa in the first round. Seemingly a favourable matchup for the Leafs as they will be the top divisional seed and facing a wild card (fourth place) team but they are 0-3 against the Senators this year with a -6 goal differential. Could home ice and playoff experience (if losing counts as experience) help the Leafs overcome a young, inexperienced Ottawa team. Maybe, but that will likely be a much closer matchup than presents on paper.

If they defeat Ottawa they will play Tampa or Florida. If by some miracle the Lightning can get past the Panthers the Leafs will be in great shape because they are 4-0 against the Lightning with a +8 goal differential. Seems unlikely the Lightning will beat a healthy version of the defending Champion Panthers in 7 games though. If the Panthers do win the Leafs will have to face them in the second round. The Leafs are 1-3 against the Panthers this year with a -6 goal differential. Their only win came with 3 of the Panthers best players out. They are 3-7 in the last 10 games against the Panthers including playoffs.

If they were able to somehow beat the Panthers, they would likely face the Capitals next. This year they are 1-2 against the Capitals with a -4 goal differential.

Of course anything can happen in the playoffs but as things sit right now the Leafs are a total of 2-8 this year with a -16 goal differential against likely Eastern Conference playoff opponents.

So while the Leafs are better set up for playoff success than in recent years, I am not too concerned about my large swath of NO shares on predyx. This tenuous path is likely also why traditional sportsbooks haven't given them much credit for their recent surge into 1st place.

Sats for all, GR