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After decades of growth for world trade, global tourism and international cooperation, globalization hit a couple of roadblocks in recent years, as the reemergence of nationalism and protectionism have undone some of the progress made in the past. After global trade growth stagnated in the wake of the financial crisis and during the first Trump administration, when trade tensions between the United States and China first came to the boil, the Covid-19 pandemic resulted in a steep decline in global trade, which, measured as a share of global GDP, dropped to its lowest level since 2003 in 2020.
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Maybe a local maximum, but the long-run trend of increasing trade will continue at some point.
Specialization and division of labor require trade.
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I'm on the same page with that. But the thing that's got me thinking is, if countries are leaning towards doing their own thing more, because of tariffs and stuff, then maybe global trade's reaching its peak. Another key thing to look at here is the population numbers, 'cause in Europe it seems to be stuck or even shrinking. Guess we'll just have to wait and see!
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Ultimately, whoever most embraces specialization and division of labor will be the most prosperous. Others will follow their example.
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Global trade 🥰
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