Nothing definitive, nothing that ends the discussion.
But when you stop and look calmly, the signs seem to want to say something.
1- Foreigners withdraw US$6.5 billion from US stock markets
It was the second largest outflow in history, behind only the banking crisis of 2023.
And it wasn't just flow : o chart shows a clear trend reversal.
According to Apollo, foreigners hold:
• $19 trillion in stocks (20% of the total market)
• US$7 trillion in Treasuries (30 %)
• US$5 trillion in corporate credit (30 %)
If this capital changes its mind, the damage could be great.
2- Institutional sentiment has melted
According to BofA, nearly 50% of managers have reduced exposure to US stocks.
The allocation fell 53 points in 2 months — the biggest decline ever recorded.
Today, 36% of funds are underweight, the lowest since the 2023 banking crisis.
82% expect the global economy to weaken — the highest level in history.
The sentiment index plummeted to 1.8 points, the 4th worst reading since 2008.
No one wants to be positioned when the next shock comes.
3- Risk out of price: Trump takes aim at Powell again
Trump called the Fed chairman “terrible,” said interest rates should have come down by now, and warned:
“If I ask him to leave, he will.”
Bets on its exit in 2025 already reach 21% on Polymarket.
And now Senator Elizabeth Warren has warned:
“If Trump fires Powell, markets will crash.”
4- 🇨🇳 On the other hand, the noise with China has reduced punctually
Trump said today that he had a “good conversation” with the Chinese government.
The goal is to reach an agreement that eliminates the current tariff insanity on both sides.
5- None of this information, alone, changes everything. But the whole thing is disturbing.
• Record of multiple jobs
• Foreign capital outflow
• Pessimism among managers
• Attacks on the Fed
The risks keep accumulating.
However, an agreement with China could change everything.