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294 sats \ 4 replies \ @pillar 16 Nov 2022 \ on: Thoughts on nation-state 51% attacks bitcoin
Your concerns are valid, but I still think that you underestimate:
- The complexity and cost of achieving 51% dominance of the hash power (think that, if the current compute power of the network is 100, an attacker needs to bring 101).
- The improbability of pulling this off discreetly. I mean, getting to do this without anyone noticing along the way you are getting ready, hence providing the network time to fight back in many ways.
- The power obtained by being able to double-spend.
- The ability of node-runners to adapt to swift, urgent changes. See the recent LND bugs as an example of how people update fast as hell when important things happen.
The improbability of pulling this off discreetly. I mean, getting to do this without anyone noticing along the way you are getting ready, hence providing the network time to fight back in many ways.
How can we fight back? Besides outcompeting them for the hashrate?
The power obtained by being able to double-spend.
I don't believe someone would go through all the trouble and effort of a 51% and not have some profitable double spend attacks lined up and ready to go. They could rug-pull most exchanges and merchants all at once.
The ability of node-runners to adapt to swift, urgent changes. See the recent LND bugs as an example of how people update fast as hell when important things happen.
I share your optimism and hope you are right but I can never be sure that will always be the case.
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How can we fight back? Besides outcompeting them for the hashrate?
I genuinely believe that is enough. Furthermore, the attacking organization would also be terribly naked to violent physical attacks, since such a mining operation is not something you run in someone's basement. Add army-grade security to the operating expenses of the attack.
I don't believe someone would go through all the trouble and effort of a 51% and not have some profitable double spend attacks lined up and ready to go. They could rug-pull most exchanges and merchants all at once.
I would suggest you read on the double-spend ability of the 51% attacker. I still think you are overestimating the power it provides. Spoiler: a successful 51% attack doesn't allow you to "rug-pull" anyone if by that you mean stealing someone else's coins.
I share your optimism and hope you are right but I can never be sure that will always be the case.
It's definitely hard to be sure about complex things in the future. But I rest calm since the incentive structure promotes node runners to behave that way.
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The complexity and cost of achieving 51% dominance of the hash power (think that, if the current compute power of the network is 100, an attacker needs to bring 101).
Would it be possible for a few mining pools (Foundry, F2Pool and AntPool for example) to pull off a doublespend by joining their hashrates?
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great answer!
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