SBF's and Caroline's lives are already ruined. A sex tape release will be a drop in the bucket for them. They are facing prison time. They won't even hear about the sex tape until after they're out of prison.
In case the author of that website sees this: Delete the sex tape while you can. Because after it gets out, it will haunt you most of all.
Prediction: SBF will not go to prison. Very powerful people in congress and the media made a lot of money off him and they will repay him by keeping him free.
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If the media is trying to keep SBF and Caroline out of jail, then why has the media made sure that everyone knows their names, faces, and crimes?
Moreover, if SBF and Caroline were directly working with the Democrat Party, then this is the perfect time for the Democrat Party to throw SBF and Caroline under the bus. Otherwise, the Democrat Party would take a serious reputation hit. The next Republican presidential candidate would say, "as President, I would prosecute SBF and Caroline, unlike the Democrats who let him go." And millions of people would show up to vote Republican, giving them the presidency and a majority in Congress.
Republicans should be using some sly means to keep SBF and Caroline from being prosecuted now, so they can use that against the Democrats in the 2024 elections. And the Democrats should be trying to prosecute SBF and Caroline now in order to avoid the issue entirely in 2024.
The events so far and the incentives both contradict your prediction.
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