Ok so first off even Mike Saylor says you should just buy bitcoin in self-custody, stocks are for wall st gamblers and money changers. But IF you have some reason that you have money LOCKED up in wall st (like a 401k, not robinhood) where you cannot remove it and buy real bitcoin with---

Then you should understand what is going on with these "bitcoin companies" before you play the casino game. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.

Let's break it down into some "math", with a couple examples after:

"Sats per share": Total Bitcoins held outright / (divided by) Total shares outstanding

"Bitcoin company value": (Total bitcoins held outright / Shares outstanding) + premium

"bitcoin company premium": The value of the company perceived by the market that exists separate to its holdings of bitcoin.

This "premium" can be referenced by another metric on bitcointreasuries.net: "mNAV" For example daddy MSTR currently sits at 1.885x over the value of it's bitcoin, showing that the market is bullish on it's ability to acquire additional bitcoin. You can also use this metric as a warning for reversals, for example the peak mNAV reached last year was 3.3 which flashed the peak price $437 of MSTR in November 2024. The "sats per share" at that point was about 160,000, while today with the stock price at $350, the sats per share is 200,000. MSTR has continued acquiring bitcoin while the stock price has declined, setting it up for another potential run up past 2.0 mNAV if market conditions allow.

What causes a change in mNAV? The company taking actions like buying bitcoin or issuing (printing) more shares. + You and me figuring this out and making bets about what we think it is going to be in the future by trading the stock.

Look through the charts after clicking on each company name. https://bitcointreasuries.net/entities/microstrategy

Now example of CEP/XXI:

XXI says they are currently at 11,783 satoshi per share

This is based on 31,500 bitcoin, divided by 267.32 million shares.

Now, if you apply the above principles you would input the current price of bitcoin to get the expected share price. bitcoin = 95,000 267.32M shares of company with 31,500 btc = $11.19 (1.0 mNAV)

But wait, there's more:

ALWAYS READ THE ACTUAL SEC FILINGS. These are legal disclosures required by US Jurisdiction and are arguably the reason why the world considers the US Stock Market to be "safe". If you don't read the real legal documents yourself, you will be lead to the slaughter.

First thing to investigate is WHAT VALUE these "CEP" shares are going to be. The disclosure says 1 to 1 with XXI. QUOTE: "continuing as the surviving entity (the “SPAC Merger”), and with Company shareholders receiving one share of Pubco Class A common stock for each Class A ordinary share"

Also important this document we can see that there is a scheme involving Tether to acquire an additional 10,500 bitcoin, so the total bitcoin at merger time (creating the entity XXI as a public company) will be exactly 42,000 bitcoin.

QUOTE: "Tether has also agreed to purchase additional Bitcoin that it will sell at the closing to Pubco for additional shares of Pubco in an amount equal to 10,500 less any Bitcoin contributed by Equity PIPE Investors (as defined below),"

What this means TO ME is that the new company XXI will have 42,000 bitcoin 267.32M regular stock bitcoin price = $93k

Our equation can be updated as such: (bitcoin) 42k * (bitcoin price) $93k = $3.9 Billion company marketcap / 267.32M (shares) = (stock price, mNAV 1.0) $14.61

Now what if just maybe Wall st took 2 days to decide that the mNAV "PREMIUM" should be exactly the same as MSTR at 1.8x ?

= $26.30 CEP current price