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It's anon-set alone tells you that, if it were useful for evading chainalysis then transnational criminal organizations that are being surveiled would be using it at scale and it wouldn't be insignificant in market cap... its worth less than jpegs is not a coincidence, they're equally useful.
@super_testnet had some amusing takedowns on twitter too that actually relate to the other side of this, but seems to have nuked his account... I don't think it even mentioned size, but correlation on a low user count chain is fairly trivial compared to the combination of Bitcoin's anon-set and Lightning's blind nature.
The lie being that Bitcoin is insufficiently private?
Sufficient is a weasel word, a moving goal post to keep the next-shitcoinism going on forever... Hipsters and malcontents will always be.
What matters is that Bitcoin is MORE private than Monero, and that swapping in and out of Lightning will always be a better tumbler than in and out of an irrelevant illiquid shitcoin.
Thanks for showing your work, it gives me something to think about, esp since it intersects with a related issue in my current mental model, which is that xmr is worth what btc would be worth if the government really wanted to destroy it; and so $btc - $xmr is its non-privacy premium.
The logic is something like:
  1. xmr is as un-traceable as they claim it to be
  2. because of this, organized crime and others on the wrong side of dominant powers would prefer to use it
  3. ... except you still can't use crypto to buy stuff at scale, there is no circular economy, you have to turn it into fiat, and turning crypto into fiat at scale is still a centralized affair
  4. therefore they can't realistically use xmr to meet their practical needs
  5. therefore demand for xmr is relatively low, since it's impractical for the people who need it at scale and too hard for normies to obtain, plus most normies have no desire for it -- this feedback loop keeps xmr price low
  6. meanwhile, btc is as non-private as they say, and anonymizing strategies are impractical at scale for similar reasons as above (e.g., fungibility issues in mixed coins)
  7. therefore, tx and money movement related to non-sanctioned activities stays mostly in the domains where it has always been, and the amount leaking into btc is not threatening
  8. the govt is happy and need not declare war on btc, it is the best avail practical option given the current world
Your argument is interesting in that it inverts some of this logic: basically, you take the low price of xmr as a sign that it's not fit for purpose, whereas I take it as a sign that it is, but that extra-technical issues get in the way. Now I'll need to think of how I might adjudicate between the two hypotheses.
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It's worthless because it's worthless, no need to over think it. The mental gymnastics are just cope.
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