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2 sats \ 10 replies \ @inevitable 20 Nov 2022 \ on: Horrible verdict about their own product: CBs embrazing gold bitcoin
This is true, however the timeline for the bitcoin standard seems to me 50-100 years from now, unfortunately. Unless next world war - it could make it happen sooner. Or add some more decades.
I don't know, look the internet in 30 years. From having to plug a modem to the line, to having it in our pockets 24/7.
One difference is that now Bitcoin has the internet! Look where we are now after basically 10 year of Bitcoin. I would say 20-30 more years tops. As your name indicates... Inevitable
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Let's hope you're right. I don't doubt that it's inevitable, but I wish I knew when it will happen. I entered bitcoin to get rich quick, then I converted to get rich in couple years, now I'm at protect the fruits of my labour so the next generations can benefit from it… and be happy in the process. If you'd ask me if I preferred to see the hyperbitcoinisation before I die or to avoid a war, I would definitely choose avoiding a war. Will the U.S. give up the dollar hegemony without a war? Maybe, but not soon. As I said below – I think it would take more than one generation of politicians to retire. Let's work to make the bitcoin standard happen as soon as possible, but I'm at peace with not really benefiting from it financially in my lifetime.
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I don't think it needs a war for adoption, and it can exist next to the dollar for a long period of time. When companies realized they can save 3% to Visa, they will start offering it as a payment option giving you discounts for your next purchase, and people will start using it for the discount and then realize that is more convinent
See McDonald's in Lugano, or the biggest grocery company in South Africa. And the lightning network it's just a 3 years old infant. Let it grow 3 more years,.and it will become a superior system. Companies are not going to use horses transportation when they can use trucks.
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I see it very similarly to your point - I have very high hopes for the Lightning network, which will certainly revolutionize the banking landscape. To date, we can't even gauge its true potential.
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The problem is that this very market awakens the tendency in us to reinterpret it into a get ritch sceme. But you are right, if you now lower your time preference accordingly. In any case, it will be a difficult and conflicting process ahead.
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Lets see. I think the Fiat system is in bigger trouble than MSM and politicians let us know. The next sovereign debt crisis will hit the entire globe like a sledgehammer. Lots of people, companies and maybe CBs and treasuries could come to the conclusion that its necessary to diversify and save a part of the reserves in the world's best money...
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I hope you are right. Saylor here makes some very good points, though: https://fountain.fm/episode/9124366838 - it's not that long (for Saylor), but tl;dr the nation states still have lots of incentives and power to defend their fiat currencies for long time. It requires at least one, but I think at least two generations of politicians to retire before there will be enough political will. And from the history we can learn that people move to the new money only when the old collapses completely. But hyperinflation events do not count, because the nation states are necromancers and keep reviving their dead fiat currencies (Argentina for instance is one of the more skillful).
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You're right, it will take time. But take Argentina for example. The continuing failing of their currency thrived btc-adoption indeed. Claro, they dont settle their monetary politics on btc (yet) but but but...
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The slight hope in me comes from the fact that these days everything happens faster and faster, so maybe one, not two generations :)
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Look at the pace of horrible events happening: 2001 the dot.com bubble... 2008 the GFC... now global sovereign debt chaos in the bond markets - and this is really THE bug one, an economic and political game changer if they have to debase fiat to survive. Look at the gold chart. It skyrocketed when they debased currencies to reset the credit cycle.
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