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This is why I never really bought into the ideas of betting markets being reliable indicators of truth. In theory, I guess it could work, but the theory seems like it would need a lot of embedded assumptions like widespread participation, unlimited liquidity, and linear utility.
But the reality is much more complex, with illiquid markets, limited participation, and weird non-linear utility functions.
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What about being better indicators, rather than reliable?
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I'm all on board for their usage as predictive indicators just not as adjudicators of truth
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Same
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Oracle problems shed a lot of light on how tenuous our grasp on the truth is.
I think it’s better to pick an objective metric that proxies the question of interest: i.e. “The White House announces a mineral rights deal with Ukraine.”