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World Economic Outlook Growth Projections
Global growth is projected to decline after a period of steady but underwhelming performance, amid policy shifts and new uncertainties. Global headline inflation is expected to decline further, notwithstanding upward revisions in some countries. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside. Escalating trade tensions and elevated policy-induced uncertainty may further hinder growth. Shifting policies could lead to abrupt tightening of global financial conditions and capital outflows, particularly impacting emerging markets. Demographic shifts threaten fiscal sustainability, while the recent cost-of-living crisis may reignite social unrest.
Do you agree with these projections? While these have mostly been historically near perfect, for these times I'm saying they will be wrong and shamelessly change these projections in the upcoming releases. IMF is being overly negative due to tariffs and Trump.
What do you say?
There's a decent chance that you're right. The global expert class definitely has bad TDS.
However, right now, the problem isn't the impact of tariffs. The problem is the impact of uncertainty about tariffs. Regime uncertainty always causes reduced economic activity and skews that activity towards high time preference endeavors.
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The problem is the impact of uncertainty about tariffs.
I agree. I also agree that TDS is at ATH among the global expert class. They have even decreased India's projections which aren't correct because I believe India will see near 7% growth in next 4 years mostly due to India-US trade will be stronger and stronger by every passing day.
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