Under the government’s formula for calculating GDP—consumption plus investment plus government spending plus net exports—imports are a drag on growth. A surge in imports deepens the negative net export figure, subtracting from GDP even if those goods are headed for eager American consumers. The result: strong domestic demand or businesses rushing to import goods ahead of new tariffs can translate into weaker GDP growth.
Under the government’s formula for calculating GDP—consumption plus investment plus government spending plus net exports—imports are a drag on growth. A surge in imports deepens the negative net export figure, subtracting from GDP even if those goods are headed for eager American consumers. The result: strong domestic demand or businesses rushing to import goods ahead of new tariffs can translate into weaker GDP growth.