pull down to refresh
0 sats \ 11 replies \ @Undisciplined 1 May \ parent \ on: Bet Update: Us "No" Men Are So Fucked...? meta
Right place. Right time.
I was checking in on all the first 100 days markets and saw that one at 6%. It's unlikely, but it's not that unlikely.
Probably too rash, though. I should have kept half and sold some "Yes" from the 1.5M market.
probs... a few minutes later and I would have beat yah to it (at least for some shares)...I'm still impressed by your betting acumen. ASPIRATIONAL!
reply
Considering the time spent on it, the return probably isn't great. It is fun though.
reply
Ah, didn't realize I had a few yes shares from a while ago.
reply
Well, you could still sell them, since I absorbed a lot of your "No" purchase.
reply
Would be nice for the platform to improve the UX. It's a pain to check at how much I bought a set of shares I'd like to sell.
reply
Totally... Very unintuitive
I agree. You can see the average purchase prices for everyone in the shareholder tabs on each market, but it’s not very convenient and doesn’t help with things you forgot about.
I feel like some kind of arbitrage opportunity was missed, seeing how the 1.4M odds dipped below the 1.5M odds for a second there, but I'm too lazy to figure out the proper betting strategy
reply
That's what I ultimately did. Now, the odds are just slightly higher for 1.4M than 1.5M.
It's especially tricky because the liquidity in the two markets is very different, so buying 1k shares in one moves the odds much more than 1k shares in the other.
reply
Yeah unfortunately predyx isn't big enough yet that you can really take a position on something but I hope it gets there eventually
reply
Even if the liquidity were there, it's in beta and they limit how much can be purchased at once to avoid being attacked.
reply