It draws parallels between the economic, political, and monetary turmoil of 2025 and earlier historical crises-the Great Depression of the 1930s and the stagflation of the 1970s. Using Ray Dalio’s framework of long-term cycles, it argues that current events are not unprecedented but are echoes of past systemic breakdowns, signaling the possible end of a major historical cycle.

Historical Parallels: The 1930s were marked by economic collapse, deflation, and mass unemployment, while the 1970s saw high inflation, stagnation, and a loss of trust in government. In 2025, the world faces a mix of both: high debt, inflation spikes, rising interest rates, and a collapse of public trust, all intensified by pandemic aftershocks and geopolitical tensions.

Debt and Economic Cycles: Dalio’s “endgame of a long-term debt cycle” concept is invoked to explain today’s record debt levels and economic instability. The article notes that the current wealth and values gap is the largest since the 1930s, driving polarization and unrest.

Geopolitical Echoes: The U.S.-China rivalry is compared to the U.S.-Japan tensions of the 1930s, with economic decoupling, military posturing, and fractured alliances signaling a period of heightened international conflict-the most significant since 1930–45.

Monetary System in Flux: Major monetary regime changes of the past (U.S. leaving the gold standard in 1933, end of Bretton Woods in 1971) are compared to today’s “cracks” in the fiat dollar system. Central banks are hoarding gold, BRICS and China are seeking alternatives, and Bitcoin/CBDCs are shifting the debate about the future of money.

Where Are We Now? The article suggests we are living through a hybrid of the 1930s and 1970s, with unique challenges: inflation, monetary disorder, political polarization, record debt, and global fragmentation. It warns we may be in the “late 1930s” phase of the current cycle-a dangerous period that could lead to chaos or, with wise action, peaceful transition.

Lessons and Recommendations: The author urges readers to study history as a guide, not a blueprint, and to prepare for volatility by focusing on self-sovereignty, sound money, and antifragile systems. For Bitcoiners, the message is to be ready to “opt out” of the failing system, just as people turned to gold in the 1930s or equities in the 1970s. Today, that alternative may be Bitcoin.