pull down to refresh

Don’t Count the Dollar Out Just Yetwww.nytimes.com/2025/05/02/business/dollar-treasury-bonds-markets.html
640 sats \ 22 comments \ @south_korea_ln 2 May econ
Echoes of the Plaza Accord may be heard today. Well before Inauguration Day, with the dollar heading toward 1985 levels, the president-elect’s economic advisers discussed a hypothetical diplomatic agreement, calling this dream the “Mar-a-Lago Accord.” Pulling it off would have required subtlety and statesmanship. Instead Mr. Trump has been applying blunt force and bluster. And he has weakened the dollar.
Was a nice read for me, if only for the fact that i finally got some context for these two accords that I've heard off in the past without knowing what they were.
So, i weakened dollar would be by design, then?
write
preview
related posts
38 sats \ 0 replies \ @OT 3 May
As I understand countries are competing on weakening their currencies to make their exports cheaper.
He also crashed the stock market which probably wouldn't be be design.
It's hard to understand what's really going on. Glad to watch it play out with a bag of sats.
reply
45 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 3 May
The immediate challenge is to manage the rolling over of the $8T UST debt that needs to be done before Christmas. Interest rates are double what they were when Yellen refinanced at 2% on 2Year USTs. Trumps threat to BRICS nations that any nation that tries to move to trade payments outside of the USD/SWIFT hegemony will be hit with 100% tariffs and effectively excluded from trade with the almighty USA acknowledges Chinas mBridge protocol which is now ready to launch and would under cut the petrodollar and spell the end if the endless US exceptionalists delusions. The Saudis have already signed up to BRICS, and mBridge. Need more be said? Trumps job is to manage the decline of empire - 'Make America Great Again' is a fantastic ironic rhetorical joke, just as much as was Trumps promise to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours.
reply
5 sats \ 1 reply \ @SimpleStacker 3 May
No paywall: https://archive.ph/Uf8p5
More fundamentally, where are global investors to go? The euro isn’t widely enough used and the European bond market isn’t deep enough to replace Treasuries or the dollar, at least not yet. That’s also true for the Japanese yen. Chinese markets aren’t open enough to make the renminbi a true global currency, either.
Hmm, yes, wherever can global investors go...
reply
0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 3 May
Yuan does not need to be a capital storage vessel. Yuan is needed to trade with China and every nation on earth must trade with China or suffer considerable loss of economic advantage. mBridge enables trade payments in the currency of choice between respondents and it is a Chinese protocol and will potentially be the basis of trade payments in the near future.
That is after all precisely what it has been designed for.
It is vastly faster and cheaper than the antiquated USD/SWIFT protocol upon which petrodollar hegemony is based. The Jewish bankers who have lurked in the shadows behind every western empire for centuries will not be in control of mBridge...nor will the USA. China is building the tertiary layers of the Belt and Road model of empire. USA is declining into insolvency and crony capitalist decadence.
reply
40 sats \ 17 replies \ @Undisciplined 3 May
He's all over the place on this stuff, most likely because his grasp on economics is very flimsy. Most of what he pushes for would involve a weaker dollar, although he claims explicitly to want a strong dollar and is willing to threaten violence against other countries who think about reducing their dollar demand.
Basically, you can't have it both ways, but he wants it to have his cake and eat it too.
reply
53 sats \ 16 replies \ @justin_shocknet 3 May
He's a Wharton economist and avowed Jacksonian, operating with the largest intelligence apparatus ever conceived with resources focused on this issue because it's been a festering national security liability for almost a century.
His VP is the poster boy for the Triffin Dillemma that literally speaks of it, and his Treasury Secretary might be the most consequential since Hamilton
But yea, he should have you advise him...
Most of what he pushes for would involve a weaker dollar
Not a single thing.
All roads lead to the dollar, which is why he can do this in the first place, even a Bitcoin global standard has to run through the dollar first to crush other fiats because there is no second best fiat.
The DXY dump was primarily repatriation into JPY and EUR, re-patriation during a covid scale trade uncertainty, and yet it is barely at 2 year lows and recovering fast, no other fiat has a path long term. The harder the tariff on a country the harder it's currency got whacked vs. the dollar.
Trade deficits, created by artificially inflated foreign currencies, bleed the countries wealth not its fiat currency. China didn't accumulate equities and Farm Land because the dollar was so great.
Things we can't not import are going to get much cheaper as other fiats, that depend on frivolous imports subsidizing them, fall off the cliff.
threaten violence
Tariffs, otherwise natsec scale economic freedom of association, are violence now?
reply
45 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 3 May
USA cannot last 6 months without Chinese supply chains. Monetary hegemony is built upon trade and military dominance. USA may still have a nominal military advantage(when did it last win a war???) but USA has lost the trade war- and China won it. mBridge is looming over the petrodollars legacy hegemony. The Saudis have signed up to mBridge and BRICS. People do not trust the US any longer...certainly not BRICS nations who now have an alternative to the USD/SWIFT hegemony. USA needs to roll over $8T USTs debt before Christmas- good luck with that. Trump cannot end the war in Ukraine- Putin is laughing in his face. Xi is rejecting Trumps tariffs bluff because he knows USA cannot last 6 months without Chinese supply chains.
reply
40 sats \ 13 replies \ @Undisciplined 3 May
Ok
Trump went to Wharton, but is not an economist by any stretch.
I am an economist and trade theory was specifically one of my fields. There are definitely better options for advisor than me, but he could (and typically does) do worse.
reply
125 sats \ 9 replies \ @metadavid 14h
I spit out my drink when I saw “Trump is an economist”
reply
200 sats \ 8 replies \ @justin_shocknet 12h
Cope.
reply
0 sats \ 5 replies \ @Undisciplined 11h
In that case, I'm also a physicist and mathematician (I'm neither and Trump's not an economist).
view all 5 replies
0 sats \ 1 reply \ @metadavid 12h
Can’t tell if you’re trolling or being serious.
view all 1 replies
17 sats \ 2 replies \ @anon 22h
Nice appeal to authority.
reply
0 sats \ 1 reply \ @Undisciplined 22h
That's not what "appeal to authority" means. Nowhere am I saying that I'm right because of my credentials.
Justin said that Trump should be listened to on trade because he's a Wharton trained economist. I'm pointing out that unlike Trump, I actually am trained in trade economics.
reply
0 sats \ 0 replies \ @justin_shocknet 19h
Don't put words in my mouth, I was just pointing out how retarded it sounds when you regurgitate MSM narrative without basis... He simply has more insight into economics given his trajectory than you ever could.
Now your "training" is authoritative...
Trump has a bachelors in Economics, so you're training means shit if his does.
reply on another page
0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 3 May
I'm happy to be proven wrong, btw.
@remindme in 4 years
reply