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33 sats \ 2 replies \ @byzantine OP 21h \ parent \ on: Markets are not efficient econ
efficient is the lowest energy way of finding an outcome.
for example, in a bubble, we know that that price is way too high, but it still "the price". In a depression, we know that the price is way too low, but that still is "the price". The market is always effective at finding "a price". It's just not efficient at finding "the price" due to wild swings.
The volatility of a market is a way of being effective, but volatility is not always the most efficient way of getting to the correct answer.
we don't know that the price is "way too high" -- that is, to quote The Big Short what "makes it a bubble."
Regardless, we can only establish that in hindsight.
and efficient, in the efficient-market hypothesis framework here means something like "the globally, best guess, of current/publically available information about the future."
= point being: there's no model/idea/conviction/belief that provides an improved pricing compared to it.
(Maybe there's a relevant MONEY CLASS in here for the Stackers... who knows)
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Since there's no known process that better allocates scarce resources, I don't see how markets are not efficient.
In your soap bubble analogy, it would be like saying the bubble isn't efficient because it could have used less soap.
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