pull down to refresh
75 sats \ 4 replies \ @grayruby 4 May \ parent \ on: MONEY CLASS OF THE DAY: Market Efficiency: You Come Into MYYYYY HOUSE?! econ
You can't know for sure but a stock trading at 100 years worth of revenue probably isn't priced efficiently. Even if you believe that stock's revenue with 10x, you can't possibly know that for sure.
What about bitcoin that has no revenue?
reply
Typical commodity markets are likely priced fairly efficiently based on expected supply and demand. Bitcoin I am not so sure. We have known production but we can't anticipate demand very well and at what prices supply will unlock as people sell to take profits. I think the Bitcoin market will be highly efficient when it is 10x the size.
reply
I think my overall point is that the notion that price should reflect net present value of earnings is itself a bit of a philosophical/theoretical construct
It's related to the last period problem that makes some people like Eugene Fama say that bitcoin can't have value
If these are just theoretical concepts. In practice most people are just looking at what price they can flip the stock at after X years... the theoretical infinitely lived agent that looks like the present discounted value of earnings just doesn't exist in reality
reply
I agree. I think the whole concept is mostly academic busywork and markets price based on what participants are willing to pay for something whether they are forced buyers (passive) or not. So in that sense the market is efficient at reflecting the result of that supply and demand. I am just trying to work within the paramaeters of the theory for arguments sake.
reply