China’s share of world GDP has gone from 2% in 1990 to a peak of 18% in 2022. More recently, US outperformance has seen it claw back share from a post-GFC low of 21% to 27%. In comparison, Europe and the Global South have moved sideways in recent years.

But things are changing. Some of the foundational conditions of China’s one-way rise are getting challenged: a reduced global willingness to absorb Chinese goods, demographic decline, and need to pivot to more sustainable growth.

Meanwhile, policy making in the US has become more erratic and according to the German bank, corporates and investors are likely to broaden their focus to alternative global growth engines. Where will investors go? With more than 100% of global population growth to 2050 happening in the Global South, the bloc will be impossible to ignore.