economic disruption - do you think this time is different? \ stacker news ~AskSN

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economic disruption - do you think this time is different?

379 sats \ 7 comments \ @stack_harder 9 May AskSN

Often, when the topic of tech disrupting an existing society, people will say, people will just transition to the new thing, instead of making horse buggy whips, they'd make car parts etc

But quite honestly, I don't see how that will pan out this time because AI can obsolete a ton of different jobs in all kinds of sectors. Maybe 20 years ago you could switch up jobs without too much fuss, but now we have tons of jobs offshored as well.

I used to work as a translator, for example, and while there is still work for it and interpreting, it's just far less money, harder, and suckier overall. Most people will use gpt and Google Translate, and it's good enough for most things, especially gpt where you can get it to write in certain styles etc

I don't know , personally i feel like making a living will just get a lot harder, and I find it hard to imagine where all the adjacent / replacement jobs will come from

What do you think? if you think it's actually a bright future, share which areas you think will blow up and create opportunity so i can research it. I'm legitimately quite scared for my kids, although I stack for them and they have a place to live, so that's at least something to base off.

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32 sats \ 1 reply \ @Signal312 10 May

I know how you feel.

I comfort myself with the thought that in the past, when there's been this kind of transformation (mechanical looms, automobiles, tractors, computers, internet), people could just not imagine what kind of jobs would replace the lost jobs. They thought there would be massive permanent unemployment, but there wasn't. The lost jobs WERE replaced with other jobs.

Is AI all that different? I think our wants will just expand. Not that I can necessarily predict WHAT exactly will come up.

But personally, I'm advocating for my kids, that they get seriously into AI, and use it regularly.

Ideally, this is not just asking AI to do schoolwork. Instead, it's creating different AI experiences, writing your own AI tools. It's a wide open world, and those people that are skilled in AI will do well. And hopefully other people as well.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @stack_harder OP 10 May

i really hope this will be the case again, where basically there's just a thing that we don't see yet and it changes the game or helps keep things from getting less suckier

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @LibertasBR 13 May

I see that many jobs that were once needed to get niced and very specific. Example of translation, perhaps there is still space for simultaneous translation for politically exposed people and of great purchasing power, books will certainly maintain the translators, now more general things will be really occupied by AI. So more competent, experienced, and with a good network of contacts can maintain their functions in much more specific cases within your acting area.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @stack_harder OP 13 May

i can speak to this first hand and it's basically just the pie getting smaller, like I'm sure some rich Chinese guy in LA buying a house would bring a long a nice real estate agent that speaks Chinese to interpret and money will be made, but for the majority of other people, it's just harder to make a living.

Like all the translators making peanuts for agencies doing netflix translations for example. it takes many years to learn and hone the skill, all to be squeezed like a lemon and not make any money and feel like a loser.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 9 May

All these tech developments tend to increase our overall productivity and wealth. But they also tend to concentrate wealth and increase inequality. If you believe in a purist free market philosophy then the outlook would be much greater inequality even though overall wealth and prosperity increase. Communism and Socialism tried to address this problem in the 19th century with the first industrial revolution...with mixed results. The outcome was that a mixed economy with some government intervention but also free markets worked best. Again with the post industrial economy of high tech it seems likely that a mixed economy approach might work best. If there is no regulation and wealth redistribution then the tendency would again be for very concentrated wealth and power in the hands of the few who control the algorithms while the vast majority will be relatively disadvantaged. Bitcoin is a fascinating exception to the rule by being a decentralised model where there is no owner, no central controller and where instead every participant is treated equally without fear or favour. Bitcoin provides a glimpse of what might be possible, in contrast to the more dystopian future where private owners of algorithms (Uber, Facebook, Google, Microsoft, Amazon etc) increasingly control the masses and hold power equal to or greater than governments.

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @Paterfull 9 May

I think as old jobs start getting replaced by AI and stuff, new job types will open. As some people say we are in a kind of second Industrial revolution.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @LibertasBR 13 May

I already believe it is more for the invention of photography. There is no significant increase in production with AI, there is a increase, surely, but I do not see how the industrial revolution was to equate.