“My thesis is that the U.S. dollar is about to get knocked down a couple pegs,” said Rogoff, a professor of economics and the Maurits C. Boas Chair of International Economics. “It will still be first in global finance, because nothing is poised to fully replace it. The dollar just won’t be as unique as it once was.”

This release feels extraordinarily well-timed, given the recent sell-off of U.S. Treasuries and the dollar’s decline following President Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement. What events compelled you to revisit the dollar’s incredible rise and offer predictions for its future?

It wasn’t a single event. Based on my research, I thought the dollar peaked in its global footprint in 2015 and was in gentle decline. But I also thought this trend might accelerate. I was particularly concerned with our fiscal deficit and rising interest rates. I recently published a paper showing that if you look at the long history of interest rates, they tend to revert to trend.

I was also very concerned about the Federal Reserve losing independence. I actually wrote the first paper on the importance of central bank independence almost 45 years ago; it’s maybe my most famous paper. But in recent years, I started noticing rhetoric on both the left and the right about reining that in. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell wouldn’t get pushed aside out of the blue. It would take another crisis. During wartime, for example, central banks are commonly made subservient to the government.