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I was going to bring something like this up.
Depending on what other layers are developed, on-chain fees may never become prohibitively expensive for lightning channels.
Also, there's no particular reason to close existing lightning channels, just because on-chain fees go up. And, as bitcoin appreciates, what are currently small channels will become larger in their real financial capacity.
I agree about the derivative point, but it may be a fairly high order derivative.
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Yeah... any kind of payments network (or any network, I suppose) is going to have feedback loops (vicious and virtuous cycles) that make prediction difficult
In formal game theory, we say that the game has multiple equilibria
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On LN fees being derivative of on-chain feesOn LN fees being derivative of on-chain fees
True, but LN fees are also derivative of the circularity of the lightning network. If there is enough circularity to the LN economy, it reduces on-chain fee pressure
On whether micropayments can be profitableOn whether micropayments can be profitable
Again, with enough circularity I think they could be. I don't understand the
min-htlcstuff too well, but I assume it's related to channel congestion of some kind. Again, it seems like that could be resolved by smarter route-finding algorithms and a dense enough network of connections.Still, it's always good to hear negative opinions, that's the only way make improvements