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75 sats \ 3 replies \ @SimpleStacker 10 May \ parent \ on: IF there was UBI who would fund it? econ
I think historically what we've seen with massive productivity gains is simply a shift in human labor hours to other industries.
So with AI, I'm predicting we'll see a reduction in human labor-hours spent on knowledge work, and an increase in the types of physical activities that aren't yet able to be replicated by AI, like personal care.
It's really hard to predict what new industries and technologies might emerge, too.
This was the first relevant search result. People seem to have worked fewer hours as the Industrial Revolution unfolded, stabilizing around the modern 40 hours for the past 80 years or so. It may depend on just how revolutionary we expect this productivity gain to be.
A very recent trend, that's entirely new for labor economists, is that male labor force participation has begun declining. My advisor liked to joke about how simple men were to model in labor: "They work as much as they can and then they die."
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Hmm, interesting that it's been stable even through the computer and internet revolutions... which is where I think I was getting my thoughts about this from.
Hard to say how much of it is driven by market supply & demand vs. regulatory distortions. (Not sure if the 40 hour work week has any regulatory significance)
As to male labor force decline, I think I read that it correlates well with disability claims and video games.
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Yeah, video games are one of the leading explanations.
During the New Deal (I think), a bunch of labor regulations were put in place that somewhat entrenched the 40 hour work week.
As with much government do-goodery, a long-running beneficial trend stopped as soon as the government decided to help.
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