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Phillip Swagel, head of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), has cautioned that the turbulence triggered by President Trump's trade tariffs could mark a "tipping point" in foreign investors' willingness to hold U.S. assets.
The April 2 tariff announcement led to significant market volatility, including a 15% drop in the S&P 500 and higher borrowing costs. Although markets stabilized after some tariffs were paused, lingering fears remain about the unpredictability of U.S. trade policy.
Swagel emphasized that global investment in American assets supports U.S. economic growth and helps finance its large budget deficit.
Not that he's clearly wrong, but it's hard to overstate how much of an echo chamber regime economists are in, so I struggle to give much weight to predictions like this.
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