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101 sats \ 1 reply \ @Undisciplined 12 May \ on: 📉 Global stock markets move with US election odds? econ
Investors and policymakers should factor in political events—like US elections—when assessing risk and adjusting portfolios
I'm sure they do, but public polling is largely what they work off of now and that becomes worse every year. If prediction markets can demonstrate superiority as a predictor of important outcomes, then they'll become an enormous public good.
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24 sats \ 0 replies \ @mega_dreamer OP 12 May
yes you're right.
public polling is largely what they work off
I think public polling was a good indicator a decade ago, but its becoming irreverent more and more as time passes by.
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