pull down to refresh

Man, is Mr. Levine having a good time these days.
First story: Basic Capital. Business model? Intricate financial engineering that allows people to do 4x leverage on their retirement savings to buy more equity.
Idiot fiat stuff, eh? Except maaaaybe not:

"What percentage of her net worth should a 30-year-old professional have in the stock market?"

I mean, at least a 100%... but perhaps a lot more...?
There is, however, a good theoretical case that the right answer is really 200%, or 500%: Most of a young professional’s economic wealth is the present value of her future employment income, and borrowing money to buy more stocks is a good way to diversify away from that one risky asset.
Even Mr. Buffett (#978652) agrees
Worse,
many 30-year-old professionals buy houses for considerably more than 200% of their net worth, and putting 200% of their net worth into the stock market could again be useful diversification.
so we're already doing it... maybe just extend mortgages to everyone to lever up absolutely everything.
This product is a pretty complicated way to put 75% of your net worth (that is, 15% of your assets, which are 500% of your net worth [5] ) into the stock market. (And then put 425% of your net worth into, like, credit spreads. [6] ) The smooth intuitive thing that one wants here is a way to put 500% of your net worth into the stock market, but this isn’t that, because that doesn’t carry. the problem with borrowing a lot of money to buy stocks for retirement is that it has negative carry: It requires you to pay cash every month, rather than bringing in cash. You are buying stocks for capital appreciation, not steady income, and you have to make years of interest payments to get the payout at the end.
Can't speak to the implementation -- seems to be a hundred ways that structure can go wrong -- but love the income-smoothing/assets-across-time idea here.
YES, LEVERAGE THE SHIT OUT OF THAT EH

Second story: ah, yes, MicroStrategy has competition:
The basic situation is that the stock market will pay $2 for $1 worth of Bitcoin...
...boring, we know (#975448).
When you discover a financial perpetual motion machine, though, people tend to notice, and you probably can’t patent it. (Nor does MicroStrategy want to: It proselytizes for this approach, which is called being a “Bitcoin treasury company.”) And so companies keep copying the idea: They pivot from being software or biotech companies or whatever to (1) accumulating pots of Bitcoin and (2) selling stock, at a premium to the value of the pot, to buy more Bitcoin.
All those sweet, juicy, financial-engineering arbitrages willlll goooooo aaaawaaaaay.
footnote commentary:
Shouldn’t the arbitrageurs buy actual Bitcoins for $1 instead of mine for $1.80 or MicroStrategy’s for $2? But my main point here is that I have never understood why the stock market will pay a premium for Bitcoins so I am completely in the dark about all of this.)

"...selling $1 worth of Bitcoin for $10 is nice work."

What would Satoshi Nakamoto think? What a strange vision of crypto this is.
in the future, in every country, you will be able to go to your locally regulated stockbroker and pay a premium of 100% or more to buy shares of stock of a trusted local company, denominated in the local currency, that will hold Bitcoin for you. If you want to transfer your Bitcoin across national borders you can … I don’t know, sell the stock on the exchange through your broker, do a foreign exchange transaction to convert rupees into dirham, find a stockbroker in the target country, open an account, pass know-your-customer checks, fund the account with local currency and then buy stock in that country’s local Bitcoin company (at a 100% or more premium).

"Seems like it might be easier to buy Bitcoin? But what do I know."


non-paywalled:
19 sats \ 2 replies \ @Satosora 9h
First off, who would lend a younger person money? Second off, how would the younger person know where to even invest? Third, why would you take the risk and dump all this debt on your head at a young age to gamble on a win? Putting money in the stock market isnt 100% promise to profit.
reply
not putting money in stock market (or, you know, gold or BTC or whatever) is a 100% promise to lose...
reply
14 sats \ 0 replies \ @Satosora 7h
Overinvesting and leveraging yourself is a bad idea, especially at that age.
reply
Why would a financial institution lend to a 30 year old amateur investor, instead of having a professional risk neutral investor make those investment decisions?
reply
I have no clue.
New, exciting market? Skip the middleman?
reply
It seems like either way they're relying on someone investing it, so the choice is a 30 year old with no clue about anything or a professional investor.
Maybe there's an incentive argument, since the person levered up like crazy has more skin in the game.
reply
29 sats \ 1 reply \ @Jerrianjb 11h
Levine nails it: today's finance is all about maxing out leverage under the guise of optimization. Mortgage your 401(k)? Sure because future income is risky, so why not diversify into more risk? Bitcoin treasury companies just reflexive loops turning stock premiums into more BTC buys. It all kind of works until it really, really doesn’t. Beautiful theory, terrifying execution.
reply
Beautiful theory, terrifying execution
Excellently put, sir
reply