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Yes but the west- USA, cannot build a CBDC anyway as it involved removing from the private banks who own the US central bank the ability to create money out of thin air. People do not understand this and its implications. CBDCs transfer more power to the central bank and government because with a retail CBDC people are holding money issued by and secured by the central bank, not the private banks. This gives the central bank and government huge power to decide where and how to allocate capital...it also removes the ability of private banks to create money out of thin air via fractional reserve banking. Meanwhile China can manage this. And having established its CBDC China has now built the protocol for enabling trade payments between trade partners via digital currency transfers- the protocol is called mBridge and has the potential to compete directly with SWIFT. Saudi Arabia has already signed up to mBridge and BRICS. The petrodollar is in its last days. USD hegemony does with the petrodollar. US inability to build a CBDC gives China the advantage and enables it to design, build and implement the digital trade payments protocol of the 21st century. Criticise CBDCs and the centralised power they deliver all you like- but China is implementing and the efficiencies CBDCs deliver to trade payments and the leverage they also deliver to central banks and governments are huge.
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If you want disgusting fiat over the fiat rails… if you think the $ is bad, wait til you see the RMB. Smart money is settling large trades in Bitcoin.
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It is not about what I want. It is about understanding and dealing with the way the world works. Economies and businesses largely operate under the law and protection of governments. Governments play a major pivotal role in the wealth of nations and individuals. It is not about what I want, or what you want. We can both hold some Bitcoin as it serves us as a superior money as individuals but we live in nation states and for nation states fiat money provides significant strategic leverage and power. CBDCs increase that leverage and power.
There has never been a wealthy and powerful nation without that nations government playing a major central role in the wealth of that nation. Just because Bitcoin offers us as individuals some advantages it does not seem likely to do the same for nation states and their competition for trade dominance resource hegemony and military power projection. Could a nation operating on The Bitcoin Standard enjoy a superior economy to the same nation on fiat? Perhaps but the question is highly debatable and untested.
Where is the smart money settling in Bitcoin? Do you have evidence of this or is it simply wishful thinking/baseless assertion? What I see is Bitcoin being portrayed and used almost exclusively as a speculative commodity plaything, increasingly KYCed and held in the custody of institutions who never use it as a P2P payments protocol. MoE use is either outright banned, or effectively impractical due to extremely inconvenient tax recording and reporting obligations derived from Bitcoin being categorized as a speculative commodity.
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Great reply! It’s all simply baseless assertion :-) but your response raises some very interesting questions.
The first question, “Could a nation operating on The Bitcoin Standard enjoy a superior economy to the same nation on fiat?” is one of the most important macroeconomic question of the 21st century. We will not see large scale results for another 20 years at least here, maybe 40.
Anecdotal small scale rural circular economies do appear to be more efficient, as they are often replacing physical cash transported over large distance. In say, the economy of an alpha city, there is already efficient fiat and credit rails, so it will take longer to see. I would like to say, yes, but i think we have insufficient data.
I agree with your observations of how Bitcoin, the abstract asset, is used and treated today outside of ‘bitcoiners’. But this is just another phase, and by no means the last. I have no evidence of smart money settling this way outside of rumor.
What I will say is that is no real way to stop someone from using it as a p2p MoE, so all supplemental use cases are additive. BTC ETFs? Great, do like-for-like and wrap coins and put them to sleep. Same as long term Hodl. Treasury company to preserve capital? Likewise for Hodl. The stock tends to trade for a premium over spot, good for the issuer! Use it to generate “accretive strategies”. Make bonds more palatable by adding Bitcoin component to restricted buyers, great! They all seem pretty smart right now.
None of this has any impact on how I generate txs or interact with Bitcoin. There are many more use cases not thought of yet! None of this is close to a final form. Bitcoin will work the same way even if Blackrock holds 2M coins, I welcome Larry to Hodl and transact with me onchain.
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