50 sats \ 0 replies \ @orthzar 25 Nov 2022
What we are entering is the very first global depression that Bitcoin has ever seen. So, I don't think we will see the bottom until we are deep into the depression. I could be wrong, but I think my reasoning is straight-forward:
- As the economy gets worse, unemployment will rise substantially.
- Unemployed people will sell their most liquid assets in order to pay bills.
- Since cryptocurrencies are the most liquid assets ever, a lot of unemployed people will sell their entire cryptocurrency portfolios.
- This will drive down the price of all cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin.
- Most altcoins will approach a price of zero and will vanish by one means or another (e.g. delisted from all exchanges, all miners vanish, or founders rugpull).
- The lower the current price of an altcoin, the sooner it will be wiped out.
- Bitcoin is the most likely to survive because:
- (a) it has the highest price of all cryptocurrencies by a wide margin,
- (b) those who automatic DCA, and
- (c) perma-hodlers.
The only moderating factor to the rate of price collapse will be unemployment benefits. However, it is likely that unemployment programs will not be able to afford the unemployment levels that we will see. Afterall, state unemployment programs in the US barely managed during lockdowns in 2020. And lockdowns in the US lasted about a month on average. There is no way state unemployment programs can sustain lockdown-levels of unemployment for 5+ years.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @selfish_gene 25 Nov 2022
цена? не думаю что это важно... это загадочное дно обсуждали 2013 2017 2022...может хватит? и начнём изучать луну? какова максимальная цена? твои расчёты?
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