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Most people have never heard of Baumol's Cost Disease, yet it explains why healthcare, education, and live performance tickets keep skyrocketing in price while your gadgets get cheaper every year. In short, industries that can’t easily automate (like a symphony orchestra or a surgery room) still require the same human labor time, while workers in those sectors expect wages that keep up with more productive industries (like manufacturing or software). So even though tech improves, the violinist still takes 30 minutes to play Mozart - and now gets paid more to keep pace with her AI-hugging peers. And guess what's paradoxical? Economic progress in one sector quietly inflates the cost of those that can’t speed up — making your hospital bill the shadow price of better technology.
To make it clearer, As some industries become more efficient and automated, others that rely on human labor - like healthcare and education, become relatively more expensive. For example, a surgeon still needs the same amount of time to perform a procedure, but their wages rise to keep up with the higher earnings in more productive fields like tech and manufacturing. So, while technology makes many things cheaper, it also indirectly drives up costs in areas that can’t be automated. The "shadow price" is this unnoticed financial burden that comes with progress.
And yet people run about crying for "better technology" rather than harnessing the technology in the long run
This can't just be about the violinist wanting to be paid more. We all want to be paid more.
The mechanisms that come to mind are 1) the violinist now has more productive outside options that the symphony goers must outbid, and 2) the wealth effect of higher productivity leads to greater demand for services in general.
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The real genius of Baumol’s theory isn’t that the violinist wants a raise, it’s that she can get one because someone in tech just tripled productivity and flooded the economy with surplus capital. Let me ask you a question (out of the context) An orchestra of 120 men take 60 minutes to complete a song. How much time will 2 men take to complete it?
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The flip side, which is plausible, is that the violinist's wage could decrease because the labor market is flooded with workers displaced by new technology, some of whom can play violin well.
Presumably, it takes the two men 60 minutes to complete the song, as well. It just won't sound very good.
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The flip side, which is plausible, is that the violinist's wage could decrease because the labor market is flooded with workers displaced by new technology, some of whom can play violin well.
yeah I didn't think of that 😂
Presumably, it takes the two men 60 minutes to complete the song, as well. It just won't sound very good.
You're the first person in 1 week to not fall in my trap :)
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Exactly. Tech progress is a double-edged sword. We chase efficiency, but forget that not all value is scalable. True wealth isn't just in faster chips, but in the timeless human skills that machines can't replace.
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