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With 'soft' data turning back up to hard data's reality, all eyes are on this morning's Manufacturing PMI surveys for signs of continued reality-checks on the economy.
  • S&P Global's US Manufacturing PMI rose from 50.2 to 52.0 in end May (but that was down from the flash print of 52.3) - Highest since February.
  • ISM's US Manufacturing PMI fell from 48.7 to 48.5 (below expectations of 49.5) - Lowest since November
Prices remain at or near 3 year highs while new orders and employment continue to contract...
Imports plunged in April (to the lowest since 2009)...
Encouraging signs for US economy under Trump!!?? But we can blame Biden, it's too early for Trump!!
The most important sentence of this post:
Baffle 'em with bullshit surveys continue...
The "maths" (though can we really call it that?) behind it is nicely explained in this analysis:
For the PMIs, a panel of executives of companies across a wide spectrum of industries respond to questions about production, orders, employment, backlog, prices, etc. Today’s PMIs asked about changes in those categories in May from April. So these are month-to-month changes. Executives have three choices in how they can respond: increased (=1), no change (=0), declined (=-1). There are no dollars involved. The total is figured in percent. 50% means no change: an equal number of executives said “increased” and “decreased.” When more executives say “increased” than “decreased,” the value is over 50%, and the index shows “growth.”
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Since there’s a lot of movement when Trump takes office, it’s definitely about Trump.
However, it happened so early that it must be based on expectations, rather than real actions.
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I'm curious about the consequences. I hope this uncertainty should settle down sooner than later.
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The uncertainty can’t settle down until Trump actually settles into a policy environment.
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