peztresojos

I took this very interesting list from Greg Isenberg ( https://x.com/gregisenberg/status/1956703650744578091?t=92GfqA1cXG6azEFXgxU-1A&s=19 )
and asked AI to analyze which predictions are less likely and which ones are practically already here.

Ranking of AI predictions that are already among us:

#1 AI girlfriends/boyfriends → Apps like Replika, Character.AI and similar are already making tens of millions. The “black market” in app store rankings confirms the trend.
#2 Knowing when NOT to use AI → In consulting, art, education, and journalism, the “human touch” already sells at a higher price.
#4 AI better than accountants/doctors in certain tasks → In taxes and image-based diagnosis, AI already outperforms the human average.
#6 AI therapy → Replika, Woebot and others show surprising levels of engagement, especially thanks to 24/7 availability.
#8 Local-first AI → On-device models like Gemini Nano, LLaMA optimized for mobile, or Copilot in Windows are already a reality.
#9 Founders without coding skills → No-code platforms like Bubble, GPTs, and agents already make this possible.
#21 AI killing the résumé → Companies are starting to evaluate digital portfolios and online footprints, using AI for screening.
#33 Universal translation → Near real-time is already in Zoom, Teams, and Pixel. Not perfect, but usable.
#34 Small businesses with AI → Shopify, Wix and others already integrate AI to compete better.
#39 “We’ve always done it this way” → Industries like insurance, banking, and healthcare already see AI handling bureaucracy better than humans.

On the frontier (early, but still a long way to go):

#3 Agents hiring agents → Prototypes exist (AutoGPT, Devin), but reliability is lacking.
#5 Reputation systems for agents → A “Moody’s for AI” doesn’t exist yet, but it’s logical it will emerge.
#7 $100M company with zero human employees → Some indie hackers are getting closer, but no case at that scale yet.
#11 Emails negotiating with each other → Intelligent inbox pilots exist, but not widespread.
#13 Agents creating companies → Legal and regulatory barriers are the main obstacle. Could happen in crypto-friendly jurisdictions.
#18 Chief AI Officer being an AI → Some companies are already placing AI on boards as experiments, but not at scale.
#22 First AI agent canceled on social media → Probable and close, but no iconic case yet.
#27 AI detecting AI at 99.9% accuracy → Detectors exist, but nowhere near that precision.
#30 SaaS flipping with AI → Happens occasionally, but not mainstream yet.
#35 Retirees becoming millionaires thanks to AI → Courses and packaged know-how exist, but not at large scale.
#37 Double careers → Emerging, but autonomous management is still very limited.

More fantastical or harder to achieve:

#10 AI agent losing $20M due to manipulation by another agent (before 2026) → Possible, but seeing such a large, documented case so soon feels exaggerated.
#12 End of the concept of “original work” → Authorship still matters legally and culturally. Total collapse will take much longer.
#14 AI cloning Joe Rogan and him losing the lawsuit → Legally complex; unlikely he would lose such a case this soon.
#15 Anti-AI movement bigger than pro-AI → Resistance exists, but surpassing global pro-AI sentiment is debatable.
#16 Kids being AI-first, unemployable but dominating entrepreneurship → Possible, but requires an entire generation.
#17 “Human-only” schools at $50k/year → Maybe, but that’s an elitist niche, hard to scale.
#24 World tour of a dead celebrity with new AI music → Technically feasible (ABBA already did holograms), but grossing $500M with “new songs” is still more science fiction.
#25 First universal AI-human language → A totally new language adopted worldwide is among the least likely.
#26 AI agent committing insider trading spontaneously → Very sci-fi, though not impossible long term.
#28 Biggest-ever data leak caused by a rogue agent → Feasible, but surpassing all historical leaks so soon sounds like a movie script.
#29 End of passwords, captchas, and 2FA → They are on the way out, but their total disappearance will take much longer.

AI Predictions: Already Here, On the Horizon, or Pure Sci-Fi?

Tomé esta lista muy interesante de Greg Isenberg ( https://x.com/gregisenberg/status/1956703650744578091?t=92GfqA1cXG6azEFXgxU-1A&s=19 )
y le pedí un análisis a la IA sobre cuales eran menos probables y cuáles prácticamente ya llegaron. 
Este es el ranking de aquellas IA que ya están entre nosotros:

#1 Novias/novios de IA → Aplicaciones como Replika, Character.AI y similares ya facturan decenas de millones. El “mercado negro” en rankings de apps confirma la tendencia.

#2 Saber cuándo NO usar IA → En consultoría, arte, educación y periodismo, el “toque humano” ya se paga más caro.

#4 IA mejor que contadores/médicos en ciertas tareas → En impuestos y diagnóstico por imagen ya supera al promedio humano.

#6 Terapia con IA → Replika, Woebot y otros ya muestran niveles sorprendentes de engagement, especialmente por la disponibilidad 24/7.

#8 IA local-first → Modelos on-device como Gemini Nano, LLaMA optimizados para móviles o Copilot en Windows ya son realidad.

#9 Fundadores sin saber programar → No necesitan código: Bubble, GPTs, agentes nocode ya lo permiten.

#21 IA matará el currículum → Empresas empiezan a evaluar portfolio digital y rastro online, usando IA para screening.

#33 Traducción universal → Near real-time ya está en Zoom, Teams y Pixel. No es perfecto, pero es usable.

#34 Pequeños negocios con IA → Shopify, Wix y otros ya integran IA para competir mejor.

#39 “Siempre lo hicimos así” → Ejemplo: seguros, banca y salud ya ven a la IA entender la burocracia mejor que los humanos.

En la frontera (en pañales, pero falta mucho):

#3 Agentes contratando agentes → Hay prototipos (AutoGPT, Devin), pero falta fiabilidad.

#5 Sistemas de reputación para agentes → Aún no existe un “Moody’s de la IA”, pero es lógico que emerja.

#7 Empresa de 100M con cero empleados humanos → Algunos indie hackers se acercan, pero no hay caso de ese tamaño todavía.

#11 Emails negociando entre sí → Hay pilotos de inbox inteligentes, pero no despliegue masivo.

#13 Agentes creando empresas → La parte legal y regulatoria es la traba. Pero en jurisdicciones cripto podría darse.

#18 Chief AI Officer siendo una IA → Algunas empresas ya ponen a la IA en sus boards como experimento, falta escala.

#22 Primer agente cancelado en redes → Probable y cercano, pero aún no pasó un caso icónico.

#27 IA detectando IA al 99,9% → Hay detectores, pero no llegan a esa precisión.

#30 SaaS flipping con IA → Ocurre, pero aún no se ha convertido en tendencia mainstream.

#35 Jubilados millonarios gracias a IA → Ya se venden cursos y know-how empaquetado, pero no a gran escala.

#37 Dobles carreras → Está naciendo, pero la gestión autónoma aún es muy limitada.


Más fantasiosos o difíciles de alcanzar:

#10 Agente perdiendo $20M por manipulación de otro agente (antes de 2026) → Posible, pero que se documente así de grande tan pronto suena exagerado.

#12 Fin del concepto de “obra original” → La autoría aún importa legal y culturalmente. El colapso total llevará más tiempo.

#14 IA clonando a Joe Rogan y él perdiendo la demanda → El aspecto legal es complejo; que pierda un juicio así parece dudoso en tan corto plazo.

#15 Movimiento anti-IA más grande que pro-IA → La resistencia existe, pero que supere al pro-IA globalmente es discutible.

#16 Niños IA-first inempleables pero dominando emprendimiento → Posible, pero requiere toda una generación.

#17 Escuelas “solo humanas” a $50k/año → Tal vez, pero es un nicho elitista difícil de masificar.

#24 Gira mundial de un famoso muerto con IA nueva → Técnicamente factible (ABBA ya hizo hologramas), pero que facture 500M con “nuevas canciones” todavía es más ciencia ficción.

#25 Primer idioma universal IA-humano → Una lengua totalmente nueva y adoptada globalmente es lo más improbable.

#26 Agente de IA cometiendo insider trading espontáneamente → Muy sci-fi, aunque no imposible a largo plazo.

#28 Mayor filtración de datos por agente rebelde → Factible, pero que supere todas las filtraciones históricas pronto suena a guion de película.

#29 Fin de contraseñas, captchas y 2FA → Están en proceso de quedar obsoletas, pero la desaparición total llevará bastante más.






¿Qué pasará con la IA en los próximos 3 años?

bitcoin


Paraguay burns with potential but cools in negligence. Sitting on one of the largest hydroelectric reservoirs on the planet, blessed with sun, wind, biomass, and rivers everywhere, we still think about energy as if it were 1970. We keep asking ourselves the same questions on a loop: what do we do with our energy power, who do we sell it to, for how much, and for what purpose? These are uncomfortable questions, but unavoidable ones. We are living in the era of global electrification: energy is no longer just a development input—it is the foundation of sovereignty. Whoever controls energy controls the future. Yet while the world debates artificial intelligence, batteries, electric vehicles, and data mining, we are still stuck in the endless saga of whether Itaipú gives us what we deserve. That conversation needs to level up. Fast.

Paraguay produces over 60 TWh of electricity per year thanks to Itaipú and Yacyretá, but we consume barely 15–20% of it. The rest is exported cheaply to Brazil and Argentina under treaties that chained us for decades, and in many cases, we don’t even get paid properly. On top of that, around 30% of the electricity we generate is lost to inefficiency, theft, or poor infrastructure. That’s a luxury we can’t afford, especially when we could generate an additional 20 GW if we tapped all our clean energy sources. We have the resource, but not the mindset to exploit it. We keep repeating the same extractive model: selling raw electricity as if it were soybeans or unprocessed ore. And like every country that gives away its raw materials, we give away the chance to multiply wealth. Energy is our oil of the 21st century, but it must be used to ignite industries, not subsidize inertia.

And here comes an actor that many still fail to grasp in full: Bitcoin. Not as a digital trend or speculative asset, but as an energy protocol. Its mining—proof-of-work—turns electricity into real economic value. And it does so with a unique behavior: miners go where energy is abundant and cheap. They don’t compete with households or hospitals; they fill demand gaps. This type of consumption could be vital for the Chaco, where building infrastructure costs millions and there’s no industry yet to justify it, or for absorbing surpluses during low domestic demand. Instead of letting electricity vanish, it can be routed to mining centers that convert it into satoshis. It’s a mechanism to turn waste into cash flow, to give immediate use to idle power, and to finance infrastructure. Global companies are already doing it here. The question is whether the State will keep watching from the stands or pick up the baton: regulate smartly, attract investment, set up community-owned mining centers, and why not, sovereign mining pools that generate revenue for the country.

But this is not just about using what we already have better. Itaipú is a jewel, but relying on it alone is a strategic risk. Climate change, hydrological cycles, and regional political instability force us to diversify. We have over 300 days of sunshine per year to deploy solar farms in rural areas, on public building rooftops, and in industrial facilities. We have southern regions and highlands in the Chaco with wind potential enough to add to the grid. We have abundant biomass from agriculture and forestry to generate energy from waste, creating jobs, reducing pollution, and decentralizing access. We have rivers and streams that could host small hydro plants and microturbines without major environmental impact. And each of these sources could be paired with storage systems—batteries, thermal salts—and with Bitcoin mining nodes to stabilize and monetize the system.

The equation is simple: energy sovereignty is economic sovereignty. Energy is power. Whoever transforms it into wealth leads. Paraguay has the historic chance to stop being cheap and start being valuable. But that demands vision. Vision to break free from treaties that disadvantage us. Vision to invest in smart grids and modern transmission. Vision to train technicians, engineers, and entrepreneurs who can think of energy as a system, not a commodity. And vision to understand that Bitcoin is not an enemy of the electrical system, but a strategic ally to monetize waste, stabilize networks, attract investment, and build digital sovereignty.

The mistake would be to fall into extremes: a State that wants to do everything, or one that washes its hands. What we need is a State as conductor: setting clear objectives, charting a course, enabling investment, guaranteeing equitable access, and ensuring the benefits of energy reach the entire population. That means creating a National Energy Sovereignty Agency with a multi-sector and forward-looking vision; designing an energy policy for the 21st century; enabling small producers, cooperatives, and energy communities to generate and sell electricity; and establishing a clear framework for Bitcoin mining as an industrial use of energy.

Energy is the spark of development. But if we don’t know what to ignite with it, it fizzles out. Paraguay can become an intelligent, sovereign, decentralized energy power. Bitcoin is no magic cure, but it is part of the solution: a tool that, when used well, monetizes what is now wasted, attracts investment, decentralizes opportunities, and strengthens the digital economy on our own resources. We have the energy. We have the resources. What we lack is political will, a compelling narrative, and the audacity to plug into the future. Because the future won’t wait for us—it will race past at high voltage. And if we don’t connect in time, the opportunity will vanish down the same line we’ve been using to give away our power.


From Wasted Watts to Digital Wealth: Paraguay’s Energy Moment

This memorable quote from Augusto Roa Bastos, the first and only winner of the Cervantes Prize from our country, captures the essence of our reality: a country without significant deposits of gold, silver, or oil, without direct access to the sea, and timidly located between two giants, Argentina and Brazil. Paraguay, with its mere seven million inhabitants, has endured almost everything a peripheral nation can suffer: wars that have decimated it, multilateral treaties with no real benefits, poor infrastructure, low industrialization, and an economy focused on primary production.
Experts say that Paraguay feeds ten times its population. They call it the “breadbasket of the world,” even though hunger and malnutrition still affect 40% of its inhabitants. It is a country that produces without consuming, that gives without receiving. From the Austrian School's perspective, this reveals a deeply distorted economic order, where intervention and centralized control have prevented the emergence of a truly free market capable of genuinely responding to human needs.
And yet, Paraguay has powerful resources: a pleasant climate, no natural disasters, and a clean and abundant energy matrix. The hydroelectric plants of Acaray, Itaipú, and Yacyretá far exceed national consumption, generating surpluses that are sold to neighboring countries. But that energy does not translate into internal development. Why? Because we remain prisoners of a system in which decisions are made far from the citizen, within structures that deny individual and collective protagonism.
Here lies a possibility: bitcoin mining. Despite the rate increases imposed in 2022 and 2024, Paraguay still offers exceptional conditions for this industry, which rewards efficiency, freedom of choice, and the intelligent use of resources. And although profit margins are among the lowest in history, that is precisely an opportunity: when many are pulling out, those who understand the long-term value are preparing to build.
Traditional financial education, when it exists, tends to be superficial and prescriptive. It teaches us to obey rules, not to understand or question them. That's why, when I discovered bitcoin, my mind was blown: for the first time, I saw a tool that brought together technological and financial education, not as separate subjects, but as a single emancipatory language. Bitcoin is education for freedom.
“Human beings are programmed to learn,” said Paulo Freire. But he also warned that all learning carries an ideological burden. What happens when education is designed to tame, not to liberate? What happens when we only have access to a part of history, carefully selected by those in power?
That's where bitcoin comes in as an antidote. “Study bitcoin” is much more than a slogan: it is an act of epistemic disobedience. It is inviting others to light their own lantern and walk a path that no one else can walk for them. As Walter Bender said: “Program to avoid being programmed.” The libertarian philosophy of the Austrian School intersects here with Freire's critical pedagogy: both reject the authoritarianism of imposed knowledge and advocate for the individual's role in constructing meaning.
We will talk about technology, yes. But we will also talk about power, sovereignty, justice, and inequality. Because what is at stake is not just learning how to use a wallet: it is understanding the invisible mechanisms that programmed us to be obedient within the traditional financial system, and how bitcoin finally offers a way out.
A farmer without access to a bank can have a wallet. A community can trade without depending on external structures. This is not a utopia: it is already happening in El Zonte, El Salvador, where bitcoin circulates among farmers as a legitimate means of exchange. We are not talking about theory, but about liberating practices.


I come from an island surrounded by land

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Maximalista, educador, cocinero. 