Finally, it is ok to copy/paste somebody else's framework (if attributed correctly which you did) then it is a good idea to check with them first if they think it applies to a specific project, particularly if the original thinker actually knows said project reasonably well.

I did: https://xcancel.com/giacomozucco/status/1841147207719784833#m

You, fine.

From your reply it is clear that you are not a business. The matter is very different when you must succeed in the production and supply chains. Without a credit money layer, businesses simply cannot adopt a base money. Which breaks Bitcoin circularity.

If we ignore the problem, some other digital money will win the race to adoption. We are already behind stablecoins even though they are just wrapped inflationary fiat currencies.

Please appreciate that this is an economic subject. Do your research.

If you have a substantive comment or criticism, this is mostly just slander. Here is my response:

Your 'eloquence' tells me that you have no clue, without you telling me that you have no clue.

bullship garbage comment, rather.

Also possible. Then we might have to switch to some fiat :-(

Hopefully there is a market segment where bitcoin exposure is fine.

The worst thing would be CBDCs being launched in a major world currency before Bitcoin can monetises as a medium of exchange.

The political powers could then impose a ban on Bitcoin and shut down any transaction in CBDC money who they find or suspect of dealing in Bitcoin or have anything to do with bitcoin.

Bitcoin as a store of value would then be blocked. Even if we later try to build the system needed for Bitcoin to become a general medium of exchange, it could be prevented from taking off.

Over and above these points the statement that it cannot be calculated with certainty is entirely different to saying that nothing should be calculated. Even then.

Answers below already explain some aspects how Bitcoin is not imposed by law and is very much evolving in a Darwinistic way from prior experiments in digital money, beginning with David Chaum, etc.

Bitcoin is also still evolving as it is not yet competitive with USD, as evidenced by the lack of mass adoption vs. dollar notes, dollar deposits and USDT tokens, due to its 6 to 10 times higher volatility. Bitcoin only sees some use as a Store of Value (hedge/investment), negligible use as a Medium of Exchange, and no use as a Unit of Account.

Therefore, the next step in Bitcoin's undoubted evolution will likely be some mechanism, system, and institution which give it the requisite elastic supply so its volatility can be competitive with the big nation state fiat currencies.

Gambling oriented real-money betting exchanges should never be called "prediction markets" in first place. Information oriented prediction markets like Prediki are way more precise, more informative and most of all, do not ask for real money payment from participants. That said, using them needs quite some methodological know for proper application to the forecasting issue at hand.

Volatility renders it next to unusable fro credit purposes.

At the moment, Javier Milei would dollarise the country, according to the Ocampo/Chachanosky plan. The hope is that he will liberalise money and banking sufficiently to allow business use of Bitcoin credit money and the legal operation of mints running Bitcredit Protocol. It could mean business adoption for the first time before Bitcoin loses Argentina to the dollar.

Agree with the fixed liberty sentiment, decentralisation being the most embattled one of them. At some stage, it may even be considered not only a citizen's right but even duty to run a validating node, just like voting at an election.

Is nothing. The opposite of what you seem to believe. There is a 100% capital requirement for holding bitcoin. It is 0% for holding EU government debt. It is prohibitive.

I will continue work on a project to make Bitcoin's price stable.

You are asking the right question when focusing on companies, as "Bitcoin adoption" is a completely vague concept in the public debate, with all kinds of statistics trying to prove that it may be happening. If some new digital thing is right, it will be adopted very fast, as seen with ChatGPT.

The difficulty has been publicly known right from the outset in 2009. Reticence to learn or lack of knowledge has absolutely nothing to do with it. The difficulty is simply that Bitcoin is volatile.

Companies in the real economy need a stable money. They either have cash piles or they have debt. If either fluctuates 10 % in a day as Bitcoin a few days ago, it can wipe out an annual profit. The adoption of Bitcoin stops before it even starts. As is, it cannot be a money.

That is why the statutes of central banks prescribe a stable purchasing power and value of their currency as a top responsibility. Evidently, if money demand of the real economy fluctuates all the time and Bitcoin base money supply is fixed, then the value of Bitcoin fluctuates, which is the opposite of what's needed. Once people realise (timing is difficult to tell) it will drop like a stone.

I trust that answers your question.

PS: There is a project which is writing code to fix the Bitcoin supply elasticity problem and stabilise Bitcoin's value, Bitcredit Protocol on www.bit.cr (disclosure: I am involved with it). It is a highly controversial project, though, as most hodlers of bitcoin today actually like it to remain a highly volatile asset, not as a rock-steady unit of account. Not that it matters what they want.

Countries in financial crisis should be interested. Argentinia might benefit most: great country, abysmal political system.