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86 sats \ 0 replies \ @bhatiaipc OP 4 Oct 2022 \ parent \ on: I'm Nik Bhatia, founder of The Bitcoin Layer and author of Layered Money. AMA. bitcoin
my ex-employer is a fixed income manager tasked with short-term capital preservation and hyper liquidity, so no
bonds as an asset class are a fixture of finance. fixed coupon securities have a very powerful effect on financial planning, especially across decades. one year's returns do not make or break an asset class. bitcoin is a very young asset class and quite beyond the mental reach for most institutional investors.
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i spent 1 year in back office, 1 year in risk, and 4 years on a trading desk as a trader. all four years i traded for execution. the last two of those years i also contributed to strategy, including having my own trades on. used bloomberg and my own excel spreadsheets for everything. the spreadsheets were built with help from in house mentors as well as sell side sales and trading and research folks.
the book. the movie was something i watched as well and enjoyed, but you asked for the novel!
something about the way Sagan described it made it so believable that we could have interplanetary interaction.
that is a good nuance to point out, and yes it was the pension funds that have the assets, and blackrock was rescued in order to save the pension funds, but it was blackrock's fault that they structured their portfolios in a way that made them subject to a margin call death spiral. too many derivatives on their books. the manager was irresponsible in this case, and the pension funds did need to be protected. it was both, you could say
i think this is a very economics-heavy question, so i'll slightly divert my answer. i don't think it matters about current central bank policy being inflationary versus bitcoin being deflationary, because the two will coexist. we will have a choice between the two as people, companies, and countries. both will exist in tandem. the market will determine what is "superior" but even that is the wrong word, in my opinion. is that a fair answer?
my wife and I have a 4yr old girl. we teach her a lot at home and are heavily involved in her education. the internet is extremely powerful in this regard. Khan Academy kids, for example, a free resource that has already taught my daughter the basics of reading way before her schooling could have. we are there with her to amplify the ipad, and we read to her all the time.
she also sits with me at my trading desk for 5-10 mins a week and i talk to her about charting and we look at candlesticks together. i guess my advice is, put everything you can into their education, because nobody else is going to teach them what you can.
my most comprehensive interview on this process was with John Vallis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=odrFNIAC8ag
on getting started in bitcoin and LN, you have to get familiar with different types of wallets, send transactions to yourself and to others, and use bitcoin. if you're not fascinated with it by that point, the power of using money without intermediaries, then you probably shouldn't be involved in bitcoin. there is pure magic in that experience of USING bitcoin.
publishing a book was a labor of love. i had to sacrifice a lot personally and otherwise to make it happen. but i had a story to tell that i believe has never been told before, and that motivated me to put it out.
yes, but i don't believe failure in that situation is the best word. it could just be limited in its use, not really expanding beyond its role as a somewhat-outside-the-mainstream digital gold. would bitcoin staying at $19k for the next 10 years constitute failure? or just disappointment? that's how i would frame it
see reply to @myles below, but one KPI is certainly total BTC in LN, which is above 5k and growing nicely. another milestone that i watch for is companies publishing interest rates on routing activity, in any capacity. that will just attract attention to the LNRR thesis and the idea of LN derived interest rates
Contact or anything Michael Crichton, although it has been probably 15 years since I've read a full sci fi novel :(
non fiction only reader now but i hope that changes over time
Joe Consorti and I wrote an update to my original work earlier this summer, The Time Value of Lightning Network. in that, we demonstrate how active the "routing for yield" ecosystem is. the rates are fairly low, and the total capital is "only" 5k BTC, or only $100 million, so the ecosystem is nowhere near institutional yet. the theory has played out way beyond my own expectations, seeing businesses build products that have been inspired by my LNRR thesis is wild. nothing really changed much with my thesis, it will be slow to get to institutional size, and probably beyond my expectations in terms of the impact of my original paper.
i almost feel like it's a trap to say that bitcoin is missing something. in my opinion, it's one of the most incredible innovations of our lifetimes, and certainly one of the most powerful applications of the internet ever. trying to say something is missing from bitcoin can only lead to "don't bite off more than you can chew". i'm in awe of bitcoin's maturation. holding 400bn of market cap 14 years in.
i think they are going lower across the curve over a 12 month time horizon. 12mo target is probably sub 3% on 10s and mid 3%s on 2s
golf is one of the best mental exercises. teaches patience. i learned how to compete in life via competing in golf. it's also an amazing place to clear your mind. sometimes i'll forget about everything else in the world for a few hours.