📈 Scalar Markets coming soon to Predyx.
Predict the exact BTC closing price — not just up or down.
🎯 Most likely? $105K
💸 Payouts scale with precision.
⚡ Bet in sats. No deposits. Instant payout if correct.
🔗 https://beta.predyx.com
#Bitcoin #YESNO #Predyx
That's super interesting!
Different ways of eliciting knowledge, combined with arbitraging those responses, should yield really accurate results.
Yes so many ways to elicit knowledge. We're still figuring it out.
Another one will be letting people buy specific probabilities, rather than shares. Technically, they'd still be buying shares, but they'd enter the probabilities and Predyx could figure out for them how many shares to buy or sell, and of which outcomes, to achieve it.
Wow - sounds very interesting. Can you please elaborate more, I'm still very foggy from weekend drinking 🥴
This would make the biggest difference in a multi-market setting.
Right now, when I buy shares I have an idea of what probability I'm targeting, but I have to choose the number of shares through a little bit of searching to find it. Then, once I make the purchase all the other odds shift. That might lead me to scrolling through and seeing if I want to make any other purchases or sales to get the odds closer to where I think they should be.
Another approach would be if I could say that I think X should be 70% and Y should be 5% and then Predyx works out the cheapest way for me to move the odds to those values simultaneously.
Got it - thanks for elaborating.
Yes makes sense now - this will be great tool for power users like yourself. We will put this in our new feature list. Expect it to be released between 30 - 45 days.
I think there will be a lot of people who find it more intuitive to answer for themselves what they think the odds should be than how many shares they want to buy.
Yes, agreed. A lot of users will find it intuitive. In fact I have few highly experienced, pro traders on our play-money markets. They makes most of their profits arbitraging - with odds setting strategy. This would be a perfect tool for them.
I reality it works because every market has more rookie traders than the seasoned ones. And they bet with their intuitions rather than information - they are the one who jump the odds irrationally.
Again, excellent feature request suggestion. love it! This will be so useful for liquidity_bot's arbitrage trade strategy.
Are you checking the bug tracker GitHub? I am finding bugs that need fixing that I posted in GitHub
I didn’t realize there was a GitHub repo. Can you link?
The code is closed Source while they build out but mega created this repo to report bugs
https://github.com/PREDYX
But it’s not well maintained as you can see
Got it, Thank you!
Thanks. we'll start checking it more often. Noted the the following issues (will be fixed in next release):
This would be an amazing addition!
It looks similar to roulette. Is it not?
Yes looks like roulette. Scalar markets appeal to more people as it removes the complexity of YES/NO. A lot of new traders are not very skilled in YES/NO type of trades. I'm hoping it will help us attract more users with less experience in prediction markets.
@mega_dreamer I know you guys are busy but can you add an S&P 500 market for this week? Closed at 6038 today so maybe 6050?
Also it would be great if you guys could pay out the Norway chess market and Magnus vs Gukesh markets so I have a lot of sats to bet in other markets. Haha
Resolved
Yes, I will create the S&P market for this week.
Thanks
More interesting ways for me to lose money, excellent! lol
Very cool.
Any idea when the Norway chess market and the Magnus vs Gukesh market will be resolved and paid out?
Thanks.
They will be resolved tomorrow, some of our keys employees were sick this week/weekend - thus the delays.
Ok sounds good
This article has projected number of wins (based on FPI) in the 2025 season for the top 20 college football teams. Scalar markets to bet on total number of wins in the season for teams would be fun. https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/45284359/2025-college-football-fpi-power-index-best-matchups-title-odds
Thanks for the suggestion on
We will start deploying scalar markets in a month or so. Still in the early development stage.