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42 sats \ 8 replies \ @mega_dreamer OP 18h \ parent \ on: 📈 Scalar Markets coming soon to Predyx. oracle
Yes so many ways to elicit knowledge. We're still figuring it out.
Another one will be letting people buy specific probabilities, rather than shares. Technically, they'd still be buying shares, but they'd enter the probabilities and Predyx could figure out for them how many shares to buy or sell, and of which outcomes, to achieve it.
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Wow - sounds very interesting. Can you please elaborate more, I'm still very foggy from weekend drinking 🥴
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This would make the biggest difference in a multi-market setting.
Right now, when I buy shares I have an idea of what probability I'm targeting, but I have to choose the number of shares through a little bit of searching to find it. Then, once I make the purchase all the other odds shift. That might lead me to scrolling through and seeing if I want to make any other purchases or sales to get the odds closer to where I think they should be.
Another approach would be if I could say that I think X should be 70% and Y should be 5% and then Predyx works out the cheapest way for me to move the odds to those values simultaneously.
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Got it - thanks for elaborating.
Yes makes sense now - this will be great tool for power users like yourself. We will put this in our new feature list. Expect it to be released between 30 - 45 days.
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I think there will be a lot of people who find it more intuitive to answer for themselves what they think the odds should be than how many shares they want to buy.
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Yes, agreed. A lot of users will find it intuitive. In fact I have few highly experienced, pro traders on our play-money markets. They makes most of their profits arbitraging - with odds setting strategy. This would be a perfect tool for them.
I reality it works because every market has more rookie traders than the seasoned ones. And they bet with their intuitions rather than information - they are the one who jump the odds irrationally.
Again, excellent feature request suggestion. love it! This will be so useful for liquidity_bot's arbitrage trade strategy.