as the title says...
mNAV is the multiple at which the stock trades in relation to its bitcoin holdings. Currently the mNAV is around 2.
below 133.3%
exactly 133.3%
1 - 1.520.0%
1.5 - 2.513.3%
above 2.50.0%
15 votes \ poll ended
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521 sats \ 12 replies \ @grayruby 16 Jun
Technically it should be below one. There is no investor claim to the Bitcoin so in the event of a bankruptcy or dissolution of the business they would need to liquidate their holdings. Even if they did that very strategically it is bound to move the price downward fairly significantly, which means your fiat claim will ultimately be worth less than the nav at time of dissolution. This doesn't account for any other risks like government confiscation or MSTR losing their keys or Coinbase rehypothecating the coins etc.
However, due to the their ability to exploit the capital markets and convert shares into Bitcoin I do understand why it trades at a premium. Ultimately as long as this exploit is available to them I would say 1-1.5 is reasonable even though technically it should probably trade below 1 to account for even unlikely risks.
I think the calculation would be different in a takeover scenario where another company trying to buy MSTR would need to pay up to acquire them and their bitcoin stash.
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150 sats \ 9 replies \ @freetx 16 Jun
You are 100% correct, but if that applied it would mean every non-dividend paying stock (GOOG, META, etc) should also be <1 NAV
If you owned 1 share of every listed stock, your dividend yield would be about 1.6% - which is an insanely low number. So to me that says that the market is about 5x overvalued.
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50 sats \ 7 replies \ @optimism 16 Jun
The difference is that those stocks are productive tho? Wrapping btc is a liability not a value add. Even a candy wrapper has more added value than MSTR.
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155 sats \ 6 replies \ @freetx 16 Jun
If you aren't being paid a dividend, exactly what value are you personally accruing from owning GOOG?
I would like you to invest $10,000 in my lemonade stand. I will never pay you a dividend, but I will give you a piece of paper that says you own a share.....maybe you can sell that to someone else for $15,000 in the future. Sounds good?
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120 sats \ 5 replies \ @optimism 16 Jun
You're partially right.
Here's the flipside: if I see in your business plan that you will reinvest the money that could go to my dividend into more lemonade stands, then I invest in your future growth by not cashing out the dividend
Because if you're an awesome company then you retaining the few % you'd pay out to investors could instead help growth into a lemonstand empire.
Now if you would propose I give you 10k for 5k worth of BTC because your lemon business is running at a loss cuz you suck at lemonade, I'd just lmao at your proposal and not exchange my 10M sats for your pathetic lil scheme.
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130 sats \ 4 replies \ @freetx 16 Jun
When will you "get your value" then? Is the hope that I may someday start paying dividends once I grow?
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21 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby 17 Jun
Those equities trade on future earnings. They still may be overvalued but MSTR is a bit different because the value of their company comes from the assets they hold (bitcoin) not from the future earnings they may produce.
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140 sats \ 0 replies \ @denlillaapan 16 Jun
what dude said.
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45 sats \ 0 replies \ @Haiku7336 OP 16 Jun
Good point about the liquidation value, probably would end up like FTX, where people had their holdings paid out in Fiat in the worst possible valuation.
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31 sats \ 0 replies \ @moptosh 16 Jun
I cheated and asked AI to help me.
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