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150 sats \ 9 replies \ @freetx 16 Jun \ parent \ on: What do you think is a fair mNAV for Strategy? bitcoin

Technically it should be below one. There is no investor claim to the Bitcoin so in the event of a bankruptcy or dissolution of the business they would need to liquidate their holdings.

You are 100% correct, but if that applied it would mean every non-dividend paying stock (GOOG, META, etc) should also be <1 NAV

If you owned 1 share of every listed stock, your dividend yield would be about 1.6% - which is an insanely low number. So to me that says that the market is about 5x overvalued.

50 sats \ 7 replies \ @optimism 16 Jun

The difference is that those stocks are productive tho? Wrapping btc is a liability not a value add. Even a candy wrapper has more added value than MSTR.

155 sats \ 6 replies \ @freetx 16 Jun

If you aren't being paid a dividend, exactly what value are you personally accruing from owning GOOG?

I would like you to invest $10,000 in my lemonade stand. I will never pay you a dividend, but I will give you a piece of paper that says you own a share.....maybe you can sell that to someone else for $15,000 in the future. Sounds good?

120 sats \ 5 replies \ @optimism 16 Jun

You're partially right.

Here's the flipside: if I see in your business plan that you will reinvest the money that could go to my dividend into more lemonade stands, then I invest in your future growth by not cashing out the dividend

Because if you're an awesome company then you retaining the few % you'd pay out to investors could instead help growth into a lemonstand empire.

Now if you would propose I give you 10k for 5k worth of BTC because your lemon business is running at a loss cuz you suck at lemonade, I'd just lmao at your proposal and not exchange my 10M sats for your pathetic lil scheme.

130 sats \ 4 replies \ @freetx 16 Jun

then I invest in your future growth by not cashing out the dividend

When will you "get your value" then? Is the hope that I may someday start paying dividends once I grow?

55 sats \ 3 replies \ @optimism 16 Jun

Yes. Plus if you turn your one lemonade stand into 1000 your value will increase so I could sell if I need liquidity.

I would generalize that this is why growth stocks (young companies) usually don't pay dividends but value stocks (mature companies) do.

110 sats \ 2 replies \ @freetx 16 Jun

So lets assume my prospectus said I wouldn't pay dividends for next 10 years while we were in growth phase.

What would a dividend in 10 years need to be to make financial sense for you to lock up that money now? So using our numbers....you gave me $10,000 today. What type of dividend are you expecting in 10 years to make that a "good investment"?

so I could sell if I need liquidity

And the person that would buy your share would be in the same boat? They would be buying based on future dividend?

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21 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby 17 Jun

Those equities trade on future earnings. They still may be overvalued but MSTR is a bit different because the value of their company comes from the assets they hold (bitcoin) not from the future earnings they may produce.