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149 sats \ 27 replies \ @Undisciplined 15h \ on: Who Are the Companies Hoarding Bitcoin? (Financial Times, Philip Stafford) econ
As I ponder this, the two answers that seem most plausible are 1) trapped capital, and 2) crazy financial bubble.
Otherwise, I can’t wrap my head around people who don’t believe in bitcoin enough to YOLO HODL, like us, simultaneously believing in it enough to drive up the treasury company valuations.
If you believe in bitcoin, you hodl. If you don’t, then you don’t believe in bitcoin treasury companies either.
Here's an anecdote: my dad knows about bitcoin. Despite my offers to set him up with cold storage he never decided to do it. Here comes MSTR and he's buying it like crazy in his Fidelity or Schwab or whatever he uses. Doesn't want to talk about bitcoin. Wants to talk about MSTR.
A group of investors I know meet once a month to talk about potential deals they have heard about. They talk about bitcoin every single month. Nobody went further than one guy who holds it on an exchange. Here comes MSTR and now several of them are gobbling it up.
Both cases people knew about bitcoin, bitcoin self custody, and a general idea of the risks of not your keys...yet it wasn't accessible to them until they could buy it in something like this. Honestly, they weren't even as interested in the ETFs.
At least for retail, it's got something to do with making bitcoin accessible in a way these guys feel comfortable with. Maybe?
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Doesn't want to talk about bitcoin. Wants to talk about MSTR. That's funny because at this point, what's the difference??
That was one of my hypotheses too, but are these people enough to move the market? Does retail really have that much influence? But I definitely think your observation is common, I know some people like that too
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are these people enough to move the market?
That's the thing: surely they aren't, right? I mean, there can't be that many couch potato old guys with extra money hanging around to play the stock market (but who are not serious enough to bother learning what real self-custody looks like or to be concerned about actually using money the state can't wreck)!
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That’s basically a cousin of the trapped capital idea, right?
There are bitcoin believers who command a lot of capital that can’t easily be put directly into bitcoin, so they pay Saylor to do it for them.
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More like custom/custody/bitcoin-wrapped-in-SEC-regulated-equity
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I'll propose a 3rd possibility: automated trading bots that trade on historical correlations. All they can see is that these companies look like leveraged bets on bitcoin's price and so if you expect bitcoin to go up, you expect these companies to go up more, not for any fundamental reason but just because that's what the data shows.
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That probably goes in category 2.
If that’s what’s happening, then there should be examples of this happening with other assets, right?
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I'd argue that there probably are. It's not something I ever studied, but I wouldn't be surprised if there is some research out there about macro effects of trading bots.
I already know that the stock market is getting increasingly self-referential because of passive ETFs that just trade based on deterministic rules, but the rules they trade by actually affects stock performance in the aggregate
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I’ve really only read about this during the rise of high frequency trading.
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Wouldn’t they go further and buy a bunch of Fartcoins or whatever?
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Speaking of which, you reeeeaally gotta take two minutes here and watch Remy's latest for Reason
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Obviously I already have. I love Remy.
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man, I laughed. Watched it like 3x on repeat last night LOL. epic
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Accelerate bitcoin adoption? Institutionally short global capital and long bitcoin?
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But fundamentally they're just paying someone to accumulate bitcoin with a promise to share the gains, when they could accumulate it themselves. Why trust GameStop to manage this asset for you?
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GameSTop, no -- but Saylor? Metaplanet? probs
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Just buy bitcoin and tell people you bought MSTR then, or stop feeling the need to disclose all of your investments to anyone.
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There are more options.
- Stocks are always priced for future growth, services, products.
- Index ETF inflows
- Most stocks are overpriced considered their book value (see 4: passive investing)
- The BTC yield has a future discount (de novo P/E ratio)
- The converts and perpetuals trade at a premium (free bitcoin basically)
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Most stocks do more than hold an underlying asset.
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