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There is a corollary to DK Effect that sorta works in reverse:
- Newb thinks the topic is simple
- Mid-level knowledge thinks same topic is super complicated with tons of variables
- Expert level thinks the topic is simple
That is, when we are at "mid-level" knowledge we are aware of all these conditional variables but we haven't totally integrated them yet....eventually we integrate these into our mental model and sort of flatten it down to a simplistic model again.
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That’s almost exactly the framework I had in mind, but as we collapse one topic back to “simple” we become aware of new tangential topics and go through the cycle again.
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No, we’re always dumb. We just aren’t always aware of it.
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Before I realized it was already a well known thing, something like Dunning-Kruger occurred to me.
I thought of it as being iterative, though. As we learn new things, we overestimate ourselves for a bit until we realize that we’re still dumb. Then we learn something else and repeat the cycle.