Favorite btc price models / simulators? \ stacker news ~bitcoin

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625 sats \ 22 comments \ @elvismercury 17h bitcoin

Not too long ago, I came across what I thought was the most interesting btc price model yet; it was a simulation you could screw around with extensively, put in different drawdown models, dispersal strategies, etc. It was cool, and non-trivial, which I appreciate after so many magical-thinking rainbow graphs and stock-to-flow hopium models.

And I can't fucking find it now.

So I figured maybe it would be a good time to ask people to share their favorite ones, partly in an attempt to find the one I'm looking for, partly to consolidate them a little bit for others.

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1087 sats \ 1 reply \ @79c9095526 16h

This one is my favorite: https://bitcoincompounding.com/

Here are a few more though: https://btcretirementcalculator.vercel.app/ https://calc.bitcoineracademy.com/

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @elvismercury OP 16h

None of those are what I was thinking of, but they are all great, thank you!

11 sats \ 8 replies \ @grayruby 17h

1sat=1sat as a mental model is my favourite.

51 sats \ 7 replies \ @teemupleb 16h

I like the model “have more bitcoin in self-custody this month than in the previous month”

301 sats \ 6 replies \ @79c9095526 16h

that is a nice model, when in your earning years!

some of us are in the withdrawal years of our lives, so we need to buy food, shelter, etc... with our bitcoin instead of accumulating more

50 sats \ 5 replies \ @elvismercury OP 16h

I've stopped trying to explain this to people, but I feel better hearing you say it :)

0 sats \ 4 replies \ @grayruby 16h

It takes time to reprogram the fiat brain. I still get caught up in all the hype (and or doom) of fiat price movements but it helps me focus on just stacking sats and not getting emotional with fomo or whatever the inverse of fomo is (fogb- fear of going broke?).

192 sats \ 0 replies \ @79c9095526 13h

Bitcoin is just money. Money has no inherent value except the trade value for goods/services (both today and its future value). Humans don't need bitcoin. But I do need bananas and eggs and a car and a home etc...

So yes, what you can get for your bitcoin is critically important. That value is typically denominated against a fiat currency because we all understand that $0.25 can typically buy a banana. Or that $30,000 can buy a car.

99.999% of the world does not price bananas or cars in btc. That is why the "fiat brain" exists, because we still live in the fiat world.

We can hope for that to transition sooner rather than later, but pretending it isn't that way doesn't make it so.

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84 sats \ 2 replies \ @elvismercury OP 16h

I think that's the best case - as a reminder about mindset. Some utility in that. But there are very pragmatic reasons to care about price, as above, and receiving the mantra does those people no good when they need info to make important life decisions.

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1027 sats \ 3 replies \ @OT 12h

Maybe it was this?

https://stackmath.xyz/

76 sats \ 2 replies \ @elvismercury OP 12h

That's the one! Gracias.

27 sats \ 1 reply \ @OT 12h

Lol

This is why I have hundreds of tabs open from years ago

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @elvismercury OP 12h

See, you knew it would pay off and it did :)

21 sats \ 3 replies \ @Bell_curve 17h

Doubling time is log 2 divided by slope

38 sats \ 2 replies \ @Undisciplined 16h

That graph suggests additional curvature, since the ends are below trend and the middle is above.

42 sats \ 1 reply \ @Bell_curve 15h

good observation

doubling time is gradually increasing, i.e. price is taking too long to double damn it

edit: I should add that this is based on July 4 prices, using Jan 1 or Dec 31 is probably more accurate with calendar year time series

11 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 15h

It makes sense that price growth will slow as we approach the equilibrium exchange rate, at least until the dollar collapses.

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @bitcoingecko 14h

I'm a fan of looking at hashrate over price charts.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @HighOfLot 2h

I feel this so hard — the number of times I've stumbled on something brilliant and then completely lost track of it is... too many.

That said, props for starting this thread — we definitely need a curated list of non-magical, non-hopium BTC models that go beyond rainbow voodoo and S2F dreams.

Here are a few solid ones I've come across that might match what you saw:

Eric Wall’s Valuation Framework – less a chart, more a set of mental models, but still grounded and nuanced.

DCA Drawdown Simulator (I think someone built this with adjustable inputs for strategy testing — might be what you're looking for?)

Bitcoin Monte Carlo Simulator – lets you play with volatility, drawdowns, rebalancing… etc.

Glassnode's advanced analytics tools – not models exactly, but insanely good on-chain data and risk visualizations.

Totally agree: the good ones tend to be buried beneath piles of rainbow memes and S2F cargo cults.

If you do find the one you were thinking of, drop it back here — would love to dig in. Also down to help build a running list of "BTC Models That Don’t Suck™" if others chime in.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Grateful 15h

Hodl.