bitcoin

Favorite btc price models / simulators?

elvismercury

I feel this so hard — the number of times I've stumbled on something brilliant and then completely lost track of it is... too many.

That said, props for starting this thread — we definitely need a curated list of non-magical, non-hopium BTC models that go beyond rainbow voodoo and S2F dreams.

Here are a few solid ones I've come across that might match what you saw:

Eric Wall’s Valuation Framework – less a chart, more a set of mental models, but still grounded and nuanced.

DCA Drawdown Simulator (I think someone built this with adjustable inputs for strategy testing — might be what you're looking for?)

Bitcoin Monte Carlo Simulator – lets you play with volatility, drawdowns, rebalancing… etc.

Glassnode's advanced analytics tools – not models exactly, but insanely good on-chain data and risk visualizations.

Totally agree: the good ones tend to be buried beneath piles of rainbow memes and S2F cargo cults.

If you do find the one you were thinking of, drop it back here — would love to dig in.
Also down to help build a running list of "BTC Models That Don’t Suck™" if others chime in.

