Spoiler Alert: Stacker News Will Hit +1.5 Million Items in 2025 \ stacker news ~oracle

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Spoiler Alert: Stacker News Will Hit +1.5 Million Items in 2025

2136 sats \ 58 comments \ @Coinsreporter 18h oracle

In case you don't already know, you can predict Stacker News hit 1.4M items in 2025? at Predyx and win real Sats.

And second market for 1.5M items still has crazy arbitrage left...

Most of us know SN allocates a serial number to every item, be it a post, link, comment, bounty, poll, created on the platform. You can see this number (ID)by clicking on details which you can find after pressing three dots (...)

STEP:1

STEP:2

This number or ID has forever been serialized afaik. But recently I've noticed that quite a few item numbers are being skipped or missing from the platform.

To verify the item numbers mising or skipping, just check the details of recent/all. Here I see that after every 2 or 3 or 4 items, one or two item numbers are getting skipped.

First of all, when I click on recent/all, my assumption is that I'll find all the items listed in a serial there, but then I come to observe that freebies aren't listed here. It may be that there are other types of items that aren't listed here!

How can anyone be sure? So, I deleted one of my recent items, and looked it in the recent/all, I found out that 'deleted items' although provided a number ID but they aren't included in the recent/all.

So, I assume there can be some more item types that aren't included here.

However, however it's quite strange that so many of these items are invisible, missing or skipping.

And I'm pretty sure before the day when @denlillaapan created #1029090 regarding Stacker News hit 1.4M items in 2025?, SN daily item number was hardly crossing 1k. Now it's been crossing 2k items daily pretty easily since then.

Is this sudden spike in SN daily Items numbers a proof that @ek always knew he could easily win this bet at predyx?

Or, something is broken?

Or, maybe I'm missing something though highly unlikely?

Or, something else, something that's out of anyone's reach?

FYI, I had 21k No shares on Stacker News hit 1.4M items in 2025? which I luckily sold out with a profit of 2k sats. Now I'm thinking to board the 'Yes ship' back provided I get a confirmation.

Anddd.....I knew for so long that SN would cross not only 1.4M items but also 1.5M items in 2025 easily. I blame @denlillaapan for seducing me astray to the path of negativity. ;)

Now I'm 100% sure that Stacker News will hit +1.5 Million items in 2025 and this isn't a prediction, it's a spoiler.

Hopefully you all know which side the Sun rises!

Thanks for paying attention to this easy-to-guess ~oracle.

CC: @grayruby @Undisciplined @BlokchainB @noknees @south_korea_ln @mega_dreamer

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61 sats \ 15 replies \ @Coinsreporter OP 14h

@Undisciplined is still shorting 1.4M SN items!! I'm sure @grayruby is gonna laugh at him when it ends. I'm also sure he will not regret, like when my one prediction about the Eagles winning Super Bowl came true.

In case you want more proof, I recently predicted Chelsea vs PSG final even before Knockouts started in FIFA Club Football World Cup.

60 sats \ 12 replies \ @Undisciplined 14h

I'm trading the odds spread between the two events.

42 sats \ 11 replies \ @Coinsreporter OP 14h

Haha.. Even a child would mock your strategy if there's hardly any. You're buying Yes on 1.5M and No on 1.4M - can you rationalize this? Lol! Still there's a chance, be on the bright and the right side. @denlillaapan only knows how to read/create data, but highly inexperienced in prediction markets.

20 sats \ 7 replies \ @Undisciplined 14h

It's actually very easy to justify, because there are usually very large differences in price. I probably do need to slide both odds down though.

42 sats \ 6 replies \ @Coinsreporter OP 14h

Got it. You just waana trade your shares on this market. Fine, do it if you get a chance.

The 1.5M market is shooting up to +60% when I'm trying to buy in 10k shares, probably because there's no liquidity behind. And you're there on tbe right side so you'll win.

But I wanna alert you for the 1.4M market that I won't let it slide below 60%.

0 sats \ 5 replies \ @Undisciplined 13h

Fine with me.

I just checked the shares breakdown and I've spent about 11k between the two markets.

Below 1.4M I make 17k+
Above 1.5M I make 10k
In between I get wiped out.

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21 sats \ 2 replies \ @denlillaapan 7h

Coins is unreasonable bitter. I wonder what happened

33 sats \ 1 reply \ @Coinsreporter OP 6h

I'm sorry if I sounded like bitter but tbh I was trying to be sarcastic. Please accept my apologies, I know I tried something I'm not good at.

But again because you're part of our tiny degen club, I want you be on the winning side. This market of SN items is a done deal now. If you don't believe me now, you'll in some time.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @denlillaapan 3h

HAHAH, nice yeah -- no troubles fren

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21 sats \ 1 reply \ @grayruby 14h

I have been on NO for both 1.4 and 1.5 for awhile now but I need to reassess if it is rigged. Haha

Although @ek only needs us to think it is rigged and bid his bag of YES shares way up and then dump and run.

40 sats \ 0 replies \ @Coinsreporter OP 14h

You're absolutely right and I'm aware of that so I'd suggest you buy in proportion to @ek's shares. Don't overrun his average price.

Right now he has pit 96k sats for 159k shares. So it's almost around 60 for 100.

119 sats \ 25 replies \ @grayruby 17h

Are you suggesting @ek is putting his finger on the scale?

40 sats \ 24 replies \ @Coinsreporter OP 17h

I can't say who's putting his finger where but the item count has definitely increased in the last two days. And I know that some items are missing.. For example: #1033158 #1033159

93 sats \ 23 replies \ @ek 17h

You can create items but fail to pay for them. Then they will not show up for anyone else.

20 sats \ 18 replies \ @grayruby 17h

I think that's a bug. Should probably be fixed asap.

40 sats \ 13 replies \ @ek 17h

It's not a bug, it always worked like that.

The ids are sequential, and you can always still pay for an item.

Once an id was assigned, it's gone.

120 sats \ 1 reply \ @grayruby 17h

I still think it should be fixed. Haha

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60 sats \ 6 replies \ @k00b 17h

It's more complicated than just unpaid items or deletions. Rollbacks after inserts also leave "holes" in sequences.

Because smallserial, serial and bigserial are implemented using sequences, there may be "holes" or gaps in the sequence of values which appears in the column, even if no rows are ever deleted. A value allocated from the sequence is still "used up" even if a row containing that value is never successfully inserted into the table column. This may happen, for example, if the inserting transaction rolls back.

Afaik the best we can say about sequences is that they're monotonically increasing (if NO CYCLE is used (which is the default)).

The id is not the item count. It's a rough overestimate of the item count.

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20 sats \ 3 replies \ @Coinsreporter OP 17h

What about a sudden spike in total daily items? Is SN going parabolic all of a sudden?

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90 sats \ 2 replies \ @k00b 17h

There's a bug in your bet. Our ids are working as intended. :P

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @grayruby 16h

Haha there is only a bug if I lose.

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20 sats \ 0 replies \ @Coinsreporter OP 17h

Yes, I also think so. The way daily item numbers have increased in last two days, it's more likely a bug.

Even then I think @ek has suggested how we can manipulate that market and make profit.

Should we try it?

91 sats \ 2 replies \ @0xbitcoiner 17h

Makes perfect sense. @mega_dreamer has gotta have access to the items that are paid up!

4.31?

40 sats \ 1 reply \ @mega_dreamer 16h

I have no insider information - I tired to bribe @ek but he refused to divulge any intel 😈.

40 sats \ 0 replies \ @0xbitcoiner 15h

After we found out that unpaid items are getting queued up, there's gotta be a way to figure out the exact numbers. Otherwise, the whole market's screwed. This is trickier than it looks, because you just assumed there were "X" items when you opened the market, but turns out it was "X minus Y." I figure the right way to fix the market is to do: items at the start of the market + new items - unpaid items from the start of the market.

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40 sats \ 0 replies \ @Coinsreporter OP 17h

Ahh! Didn't know that. Is there any chance of improving this to 'no item creation' for 'failing to pay'?

21 sats \ 1 reply \ @SimpleStacker 14h

The hilarious thing about this is you guys are actually betting on an outcome that can literally be directly controlled by one of the other bettors lol

30 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 14h

I guess we'll see how powerful prediction markets are.

21 sats \ 1 reply \ @BlokchainB 17h

Now I'm 100% sure that Stacker News will hit +1.5 Million items in 2025 and this isn't a prediction, it's a spoiler.

I never had any doubt! 😁

77 sats \ 0 replies \ @Coinsreporter OP 17h

I too never had except for the phase when @denlillaapan inserted it in my mind..haha

20 sats \ 3 replies \ @denlillaapan 16h

blaaaaame me all your want, sucker.

Copium is high among some stackers

also:

N daily item number was hardly crossing 1k. Now it's been crossing 2k items daily pretty easily since then.

some 4,000 items in three days and you suddenly get the shivers?

Let me remind you of what the graph looks like (and how far behind ek is):

0 sats \ 2 replies \ @Coinsreporter OP 16h

Currently we are at about 1033281 and exactly 24 hours ago we were at about 1031100. So, SN has started hitting what number it needs to reach 1.5M items.

Would be better if you surrender before it leaves you with a nasty stain of a bitter loss. It's fixed, it's done, it's just game over for you.

20 sats \ 1 reply \ @denlillaapan 16h

I'm starting to wonder whether you can read a simple graph, sir. Good luck with your new adventure

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Coinsreporter OP 15h

I'm starting to wonder whether you can't understand what a spoiler is, sir. Good Luck with your short positions!

I've already boarded the right train.

20 sats \ 4 replies \ @0xbitcoiner 17h

Tell me one item that 'doesn't exist'.

0 sats \ 3 replies \ @Coinsreporter OP 17h

1033158

0 sats \ 2 replies \ @0xbitcoiner 17h

That one ain't been made yet. There was one before it from 1033102.

21 sats \ 1 reply \ @Coinsreporter OP 17h

But how come this '#1033163' made if that's not been made? Are the items not serialized anymore?