What Do You Guys See As the Best Metric of Bitcoin Adoption? \ stacker news ~bitcoin

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What Do You Guys See As the Best Metric of Bitcoin Adoption?

533 sats \ 27 comments \ @spiderman 13 Jul bitcoin

I know the exchange rate (against Fiats) is important, and that is what comes to everyone's mind first.

But, zooming out, what other metrics do you see as the most useful to gauge, not how many $$ you can sell your sats for, but to what extent BTC is replacing dollar in the later's role?

Is it something like the network strength or hash rate? Those are too arcane and hard for laymen to interpret.

Is it the merchant adoption on BTC map? But that is mostly static on a yearly basis, does not seem to grow at all?

Treasury adoption? Many say that is a bubble and Saylor will this cycle's Sam Bankman.

So what do you see as the best proxy to measure whether Bitcoin is winning?

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110 sats \ 13 replies \ @Scoresby 13 Jul

Full blocks.

102 sats \ 12 replies \ @optimism 13 Jul

Even if it's wizard jpgs?

112 sats \ 11 replies \ @Scoresby 13 Jul

Yes. If it makes it into blocks, it means people are using Bitcoin (and also bitcoin).

21 sats \ 10 replies \ @optimism 13 Jul

Yeah I think the difference between our thinking here is for me adoption is BTC adoption, not blockchain adoption. If people want to adopt blockchain they can go do that elsewhere afaic.

98 sats \ 9 replies \ @Scoresby 13 Jul

Do you think there can be significant BTC adoption without full blocks (given current consensus rules)?

102 sats \ 8 replies \ @optimism 13 Jul

Feels like a trick question. But yes, I think so, though I think it unlikely that in the face of significant adoption (as MoE) there will not be full blocks.

97 sats \ 7 replies \ @Scoresby 13 Jul

It wasn't meant to be a trick question. I'm trying to understand where we differ.

for me adoption is BTC adoption, not blockchain adoption.

I understand you to mean by this that blocks full of jpgs are not adoption?

If yes, this extends to "only monetary transactions count as adoption."

I like monetary transactions, but I also think any transaction that makes it into a block ultimately increases adoption of BTC.

Imagine a world where ASCII art became wildly popular in China. This would not be using English as language, but it might increase the adoption of English in China.

Wizard jpgs in Bitcoin blocks are like this, except they are required to actually use bitcoin as money too (pay fees to miners).

102 sats \ 6 replies \ @optimism 13 Jul

I understand you to mean by this that blocks full of jpgs are not adoption?

jpegs on the blockchain aren't BTC-as-MoE adoption, if anything, they are detractors. This is why (from how I understand it) Luke hates the spam.

I like monetary transactions, but I also think any transaction that makes it into a block ultimately increases adoption of BTC.

If blocks are full because of jpegs, the price of a transaction goes up without there being an MoE use-case. Inscribed jpegs are also much larger than regular transactions, so per-tx capacity goes down, and that means fees are bloated. Think of what this bloat does to the profitability of liquidity providers on LN, that may need to close a channel. It deteriorates the ecosystem unneccessarily.

Wizard jpgs in Bitcoin blocks are like this, except they are required to actually use bitcoin as money too (pay fees to miners).

What you're saying is basically the Parable of the Broken Window: graffiti isn't good for the economy just because some punks buy cans of spray paint and someone is employed to remove it. This is all money spent unproductively.

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224 sats \ 0 replies \ @optimism 13 Jul

When someone asks me to please pay them in sats rather than me asking them if I can pay them in sats, expressed as % of transactions.

Current adoption: |◽️◽️◽️◽️◽️

25 sats \ 1 reply \ @bitcoingraffiti 13 Jul

price

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @DannyM 14 Jul

That's the metric I care about the least honestly

156 sats \ 0 replies \ @bitcoingecko 13 Jul

I'm most excited for merchant adoption

35 sats \ 0 replies \ @halalmoney 13 Jul

When sats are given as wedding gifts instead of fiat

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Grateful 14 Jul

Mempool activity.

0 sats \ 2 replies \ @standardcrypto 14 Jul

hashrate / % of global energy budget. (currently about 0.2% if memory serves)

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @spiderman OP 14 Jul

Interesting metric, although harder to interpret for laymen without a quantitative brain.

In any case, what's the definition and significance? From what you say, it seems the definition would be

hashrate*global energy budget/global mining energy consumption

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @standardcrypto 14 Jul

no, the "/" was like an "or, alternative but similar" not a division sorry.

so it's really 2 related but similar metrics.

both are measures of energy.

the hashrate is an absolute number, easy to measure but harder to relate as a concrete indicator.

the percent of global energy number is impossible to measure precisely but not that hard to estimate, and gives a meaningful summary of the role Bitcoin plays in humanity's economic choices.

ie if it 5xes to 1%, miners clearly would rather spend energy on Bitcoin than on other traditional commodities like aluminum or making plushy toys in a factory.

but if it drops to one millionth of the energy budget, that"s a sign that Bitcoin is seriously weakening.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @3a42879d5f 13 Jul

Ratio of family members who are using bitcoin to those that aren't. Right now it's 3:8, with one new hodlr onboarded this year. Works pretty good in my book, because there's a lot of diversity in my family. We've got a good mix of normies, nerds, religious puritans, deviants, live-laugh-lovers, workaholics, etc.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @BeeRye 13 Jul

if i can pay for food and shelter with it

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @billytheked 13 Jul

bitcoin wins when people change the way they think.

in my opinion, the money aspect causes many people miss the forest for the trees. yes, the money is a medium, but one that facilitates actions of individuals.

fight the the good fight against fiat culture. it will have to die before the currency.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @rootmachine 13 Jul

I am happy to see more fiat banks opening up to BTC. I feel this as a sort of win. When all banks will have BTC then we will be super close of becoming daily usage for everyone. As a timeline, I would say 10-15 maybe 20 years from now (we have to raise at least 2-3 generations used to tech on daily basis. This is unless something major pops and speeds things up.