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Selgin explains that “as early as the 1830s in Scotland, the gold reserve ratios were often less than 2% of the bank’s liabilities. So they were very slim, and yet we’re talking about some of the banks that were considered the most stable in the world. The banking system was very stable.”
Yo, now that's a fractional reserve.
In a competitive environment, banks aren’t forced to hold large reserves. Instead, they’re constantly tested by other banks via clearinghouses. Selgin states that “If one bank owes another more than it receives, that bank settles the difference in reserves.”Employing this format ensures that “this market discipline kept banks honest.”
I haven't studied free banking at all, but I'd be curious about what happens when those test fail across many banks.
“Bitcoin is not as cheap to move as people think. Banking systems can move money with near-zero friction,” Selgin says, especially in Europe where instant payments are the norm. “If you had Bitcoin banks issuing digital IOUs, stable, Bitcoin-backed units, it could work like Lightning, or even better.”
ehhh
Selgin explains that Bitcoin’s success as an investment medium may unintentionally slow its progress as money, explaining that “the greater the expected rate of return on Bitcoin, the less people want to spend it. And the less they want to spend it, the less useful it is as a medium of exchange.”
Selgin explained that “if Bitcoin is not used as a medium of exchange, that in turn feeds into the lowered prospects of Bitcoin banks being established because there’s not enough need.”
I also don't know enough about the free banking period. The consensus view most economists seem to have is that it was a chaotic time: #998456. But Selgin seems to have a different view. Maybe free banking was chaotic in America and stable in Scotland. This is a topic I really should read up more on.
Bitcoin is not as cheap to move as people think. Banking systems can move money with near-zero friction
No, he's wrong here. The friction here is that you have to trust the intermediaries. And because these large intermediaries operate on trust, they also require government regulation to keep them honest. Bitcoin circumvents that entire layer of friction.
Selgin explains that Bitcoin’s success as an investment medium may unintentionally slow its progress as money, explaining that “the greater the expected rate of return on Bitcoin, the less people want to spend it. And the less they want to spend it, the less useful it is as a medium of exchange
This doesn't entirely make sense to me. If you're not spending $100 worth of Bitcoin because you expect it to appreciate to $150 next year, then why would you be willing to spend $100 worth of cash which you could instead use to buy Bitcoin? I guess some people do succumb to this irrational psychology, but I think it's more likely that people don't spend bitcoin because there aren't that many places to spend it on, and businesses don't adopt bitcoin because there are too many frictions (taxes, point-of-sale tech, etc)
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I'd be curious about what happens when those test fail across many banks.
then reserves pile up in the banks that don't fail; and in a functioning banking system faced with an irrational run, those banks can just lend the reserves back to the banks that are run upon. (Kaufman's short description piece here has been important in my understanding of banking: https://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/BankRuns.html)
I also think the word "fail" here is confusing. And from archival work, I can personally attend to those sorts of reserve ratios... though there were usually a bunch of liquid assets plus, importantly, other banks' notes, including Bank of England notes, such that it was not the case that demands for return of deposits or redemption of notes of a quantity >2% of balance sheet = crisis
These bits, Selgin is usually spot-on about... it's usually the sour BDS sentiments where he messes up
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Yes, he mostly mentions gold reserves and bitcoiners normally triggered by that but behind the scenes it is also notes of other banks, plus equity capital.
So 2% is just for sudden unusual withdrawal in gold.
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True, so base money.. but with liquid enough assets you can locate the gold and cover the withdrawals if needed
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Here is the actual comment by Hal Finney on Dec 30, 2010:
George Selgin has worked out the theory of competitive free banking in detail, and he argues that such a system would be stable, inflation resistant and self-regulating.
I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash. Most Bitcoin transactions will occur between banks, to settle net transfers. Bitcoin transactions by private individuals will be as rare as... well, as Bitcoin based purchases are today.
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39 sats \ 2 replies \ @jgbtc 21h
Academics like Selgin have been wrong about Bitcoin every step of the way. His opinion on it is meaningless at this point.
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Nah, his free banking work and monetary theory contributions are excellent. Just ignore/discount-by-90% what he says about bitcoin
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No, Selgin is not a bad one. We could figure out something with his works actually. For Hosted channels, for ecash tech, for anything on top of Bitcoin but not exactly about onchain operations for end users.
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