A decade ago Nature, a scientific publisher, began tallying the contributions made by researchers at different institutions to papers published across a set of 145 respected journals. When the first such Nature Index was published in 2016, the Chinese Academy of Science (CAS) ranked first, but American and European institutions dominated the top ten. Harvard placed second, with Stanford and MIT fifth and sixth; the French National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS) and the German Max Planck Society were third and fourth; Oxford and Cambridge took ninth and tenth (seventh and eighth place went, respectively, to the Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres and the University of Tokyo).

Gradually, however, the table has turned. In 2020 Tsinghua University, in Beijing, entered the top ten. By 2022 Oxford and Cambridge were out, replaced by two Chinese rivals. Come 2024 only three Western institutions remained in the top ten: Harvard, CNRS and the Max Planck Society. This year, Harvard ranks second and Max Planck ninth. Eight of the top ten are Chinese.

Yet the way the rankings are created plays to China’s strengths. The journals included in the index are chosen to be representative of top-tier research across the natural sciences, with the composition regularly tweaked to reflect the state of the field. A growing number of publications in chemistry and physical-science journals has led to their share increasing to just over half those used in the 2025 index. Papers from health and biological-science journals, however, which remain an area of Western dominance, account for only 20% of the index.

China’s research centres also tumble down the table when the studies under consideration are limited to those published in Nature and Science, the two journals widely regarded as the most prestigious. CAS is the only institution in that country near the top of that leaderboard, placing fourth.