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So, I am more of a techie (and with a decent knowledge of Austrian economics, which drew me to Bitcoin), not a financial analyst or investment guru, analysing account statements and balance sheets.
But recently, came upon this valid critique of Microstrategy. It is from someone who calls himself a crypto marketer, not another FUD spreading Buttcoiner shilling for the central banks.
The concern seems reasonable, that Saylor seems destined to be the Sam Bankman of this cycle. Also, whether this debt driven growth is healthy for Bitcoin, which may crash harder. But, just wondering, is the popularity of so called treasury companies a reflection of regulatory handcuffs that distort the present capital market?
Left to my own devices, I would not, in a thousand years, buy any Strategy, IBIT or any treasury company security. I would buy Bitcoin, and hold it in my Trezor, no matter whatever ratios are peddled by some financial wizards.
But, I also read, there are numerous funds, which, for regulatory reasons, can not by BTC. So, for them, Strategy is a proxy to gain Bitcoin price exposure within the compliance framework they are constrained to.
Does it mean Strategy is not fuelling a bubble, but merely acting as a conduit to channel those capital into BTC that would otherwise stay destined to rot in muni-bonds and treasury bills?
Is my interpretation correct? Share your thoughts.
Saylor / Strategy is a fucking ponzi scheme. I do not understand why people are still under cognitive dissonance and do not want to see that.
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And other companies holding Bitcoin as treasury asset are not? Or you harbour the same opinion about all of them?
As I said, I would take in a nuanced view. Their leverage does build up some froth and bubble. But also, their business model channels a lot capital into Bitcoin that wish to buy the real Bitcoin, but would otherwise not be permitted to hold a single Sat. Basically, regulatory handcuff.
So yeah, regulators encourage financial engineering, as always.
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companies holding Bitcoin as treasury asset
crap scam. directly.
bitcoin as "treasury asset" means simply this:
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So if you have some excess cash (treasury) and you buy Bitcoin to preserve its value, that also means the same thing?
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Bitcoin is money. Simply as that.
buy Bitcoin to preserve its value
If you have that in mind, you are still a fiat maxi... that "value" you have in mind is in fiat. And is wrong.
You better read this very good article from 2014: https://fee.org/articles/what-gave-bitcoin-its-value/
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đźš© This post might be more relevant and engaging in the ~econ territory.
The analysis is good but there is a basic flaw in logic. He correlates MSTR to FTX/luna/GBTC discount crashes to a potential MSTR unwind. But those events caused the crashes. An MSTR unwind would occur after a 75% drawdown. Doesn’t seem the same to me.
Still it’s fair to say that’s a lot of Bitcoin in one entities hands and the market probably doesn’t continue buying MSTRs Bitcoin for 1.9x the price of Bitcoin itself for very much longer and we don’t know what the knock on effects of that will be. A 75% drawdown seems unlikely though but I suppose possible.
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A 75% drawdown seems unlikely though but I suppose possible.
Happened 4 times thus far, the last time over the course of 2022.
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100 sats \ 1 reply \ @grayruby 18 Jul
Yes from a much lower, more volatile market cap, without institutions or passive capital involved. Again, not saying it isn't going to happen but it is a lot less likely than previous cycles. Unless of course we get some massive exogenous effect like WW3.
I suppose if Bitcoin 23x off the bottom like it did last cycle to reach a new ATH we could have another 75% drawdown. But I don't think the top will be anywhere near a 23x. Less magnitude of moves in both ways makes the most sense.
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Maybe, I personally don't care either way. Drawdown means more extractable sats per hour... so that's great, but it gets evened out with more sats being extracted on the expense side...
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Yeeees... But how do they implode?
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