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I think it's either zero or practically zero, as in the price of ETH slides so low that they have to fix it at that point to keep the scam going.
Think about the incentives from their point of view.
They already have their entire security budget forever now. Just never let the staked ETH unstake. With the ETH they have already staked, they can secure their blockchain forever, just so long as everybody buys $100 of hard drives every month, then 2 weeks, then weekly, etc as blockchain bloat fully centralizes ETH.
They don't have the code to unstake yet. It doesn't exist and it's against their interest to create it.
So unless someone forces them to do it, they'll never do it. They'll just keep stalling and stalling and stalling until they say it's impossible. Good thing there's no such thing as Ethereum mining anymore. Otherwise someone would be able to pressure them to make the unstake upgrade.
Ethereum is the most successful scam of all time. Try to get your money out of it. Good luck.
I think it will probably happen next year.
But it's more nuanced than that. In order to prevent everyone withdrawing at once, only a set number of validators will get to unstake per epoch. The logic behind how this works is still TBD, but last I checked early stakers will get priority (i.e. Ethereum Foundation). So even if the Shanghai fork happens this spring, it could be much longer before you get a chance to withdraw if you were a later staker.
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I think the chance is proportional to how much ETH insiders have staked. As this depression deepens, unempoyment will start rising (especially after New Years) and consumers will start dumping cryptocurrencies. ETH will fall in price and ETH insiders (e.g. Joe Lubin) will demand that Vitalik enable unstaking so they can sell too.
Once unstaking is enabled, it will be a race to sell first. But those who have not staked their ETH will have a chance to dump first. In other words, Vitalik would enable staking in reaction to the dumping of unstaked ETH.
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SHITCOIN! WHAT IS THIS SHITCOIN POSTING STUFF ON THIS HERE BITCOIN WEBSITE?!?!?!?!?!?!?
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